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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46756)	4/16/2000 5:42:00 PM
From: umbro	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

you know what i think about the economy...it is sound in many respects, except for two crucial ones: the size of private sector debt and the current account deficit. both need a recession to be corrected. Add another one to the list: corporations are probably more heavily leveraged than the consumer.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (46756)	4/16/2000 7:36:00 PM
From: Jerry Olson	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

HB btw, this will NOT be "THE" big one...they are always "THE" big ones..each and every correction is "THE" big one... look we meet here each and every time an event like this occurs...everyone is hollarin' CRASH again... so HB let it crash??? if you want to call it that..so be it...i think i actually said this before<G>.... i like to think it simply, a correction from the excesses that i've come to know and love...it's moving the charts back to more normal areas...nothing unusual about this event..or for that matter, in hindsight any other event like this before.. it cuts both ways here..on the upside and downside...the volitility is what we trade HB...we make money playing this lunacy... as for the economy???..i have stated here and elsewhere this correction will be, and is, a precursor to a recession...albeit, my guess is a mild one....this is no different than 87...from the looks of things... and AG, and the forces that control this economy, will not let it slip away..too much good has come of this wonderful bull market HB.. the tricle down effect has actually reached the poorest of the poor here..no administration, either Dem/Rep, will let it just fade away... i rarely get into whats going on with the inside track and such..because it doesn't have any meaningful effect on me as a trader...i don't want to even hazzard a guess half the time, on where, what, how this will resolve itself... it really does not matter...you said in another post you had a great week last week...well great for you..thats what i meant... from Jan of this year till Mid March...i do not want to say how amazing this market was for someone like me...and i'm sure many others...and of course i took a hit on my portfolio's like everyone else here.. but...we live to trade another day..always learning what to do and what NOT to do... i fully expect the Mon morning slam as per usual, thru early Tues..then at some point buyers will appear like magic...at some point..if not..then we'll continue down till they do start buying...i'll be there...waiting..no rush, no heroics...and so will you... there's a very nice tradable bounce coming here..i see it, read it..and know it...and yes, then another test of what ever lows are set...probably a few weeks from now..and then back up again...and so on, and so on, and so on... history repeats itself...this time is no different... i have given my downside projections on all indices...let's see if they hold..my guess would be NO...people are in panic mode...all the better for me, because i'll buy some stuff dirt cheap, either tomr/or Tues.or Wed???? what makes this event so interesting to me and others...is we've been here before...all of us..it's like deja vu..amazing... and HB the discussion remains the same...never changes...charts come out of the wood work..everyone has opinions..it's great for the ego's of us all to spout what we think and feel... nothing wrong with any of it....i enjoy the rhetoric myself...keeps the bodily juices flowing for me anyway... btw ...i wonder what happens if instead of a major crash MON, we rally instead????? or if we have an early selloff, and gigantic rally from there...it's sure fun to spekulate<VBG>....BB, get your muckluks ON!!!!..HB you too<G>... ok folks let's get ready to rumble!!!!!! i am pumped up..how the heck will i sleep tonight what with all this excitement?????<GGGGG>...