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Strategies & Market Trends : Systems, Strategies and Resources for Trading Futures -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (41032)	4/16/2000 11:12:00 PM
From: Carl R.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 44573

Hi Pat. I haven't been trading since the first of the year (unfortunately) so my butt is hang out there. In the past I've always been pretty well covered up when these things hit. I haven't updated my neural models in months, but they went short a couple weeks ago, and are still short, in general. I did a plot of the DOT versus the 1991-1993 biotech crash, and the plots are identical. This leads me to believe that we see a pattern similar to the one you describe, with a gap down in the morning, and then stability. Note that there was no strong rally at the bottom, but rather a flat period, followed by a rally a few weeks later. I don't expect much of a rally for a week or two. Next week is options expiration, and that should provide a little support for a weak rally later in the week, though I expect a re-test of the lows next week. Carl

To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (41032)	4/16/2000 11:22:00 PM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 44573

Can't believe that you are going to stay up tonight trading the spoo. BTW, the raising of margins on the futures is to pre-empt what happened in '87. Again, if memory serves me right the margin on the spoo (pre-split -- $500 per point at the time) was then about $6K on the day of the crash -- which you can imagine was nothing given what happened that day. When the futures gapped down 20 points on the open, anyone who came in long overnight or for that matter went long at the open were in trouble within no time. Another coincidence -- I went flat the Thursday preceding the crash after being short 6 contracts; missed the whole move down on Friday and Monday. Guess what -- yep, I went flat on Thursday of last week. But I am sure that is where the coincidence will end; I will be mightily teed off if I miss the short a second time the market crashes -- after being short just before the event. Anyway, good luck if you trade -- I am going to bed.