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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: el paradisio who wrote (47038)	4/17/2000 9:50:00 PM
From: John Pitera	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

EP, sure thing, what was interesting is that the trading Index, (the Trin) Got all the way to 4.31 on Friday. There have been only 12 days since May of 1962 when we have seen readings higher than 4. Most were very close to significant bottoms. I am trying to decide if we'll need to be selling the rally, or not. I'm going to try to let the market tell me, instead of telling the market. the tick sure did not get down to the -1700 or -1800 we should have seen on the low. But then the SPX and DJIA were not as much of a problem as this 35% decline in the NASD. But then again, it was Nasd that had the monster run this past year. the market is giving bulls and bears both things to be happy at and pull their hair out with. -g- John

To: el paradisio who wrote (47038)	4/18/2000 2:52:00 AM
From: Andy H	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Was traveling during the much of trading day both Friday and Monday. Watching my Quotrek, which last got quotes at the first hour mark on Friday, receive today's closing quotes back home at the airport-many stocks made a round trip back to a just a few dollars higher or lower than the first hour on Friday. The IBD put call premium had an unprecedented run of three straight days of .16,.16 and .14, just off the alltime low of .13 of 8/31/98. A new extreme for this indicator and a good sign. TRINs of 3.4 and 2.1 on NAZ and NYSE on Friday is another climactic reading. VIX matched its 98 high readings. We had a high put call volume reading on Friday. In a true bear like 1990 and 1998 , we had several readings of 1.0+ before turning around. The bear declines and recoveries have been happening in shorter and shorter time frames. Hard to believe that was it for the bear, but who knows. The Fed is in our face this time, which contrasts with the other bears of the 90s, except 94 if you count that one. Maybe we should look at 1994 for guidance. Huge declines at the end of March and into early April, then sideways until Dec 9, 1994. The semis were cranking out great earnings back then, but struggled until the Fed finally had to back off in 1995 after trashing the bond market by forcing mass liquidation of long term treasuries that were arbitraged in the borrow short term, buy long term carry trade. Greenspan was oblivious to these problems until bankrupting Orange County and Mexico, so to speak. Hard to tell in here, but I'm betting that the semis that I've mentioned before have hit bottom and can see-saw higher, similar to 1994.