Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4256)	4/18/2000 9:44:00 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Bingo! Only Qualcomm is making money in its ecosystem. It's 70+ CDMAOne licensees are not. Well, that is if you don't include balance sheet equity created by stock sales.<g> How sustainable is that? No chip, no gizmo, no PR stunt, no amount of politicking in the world can ultimately change the darwinian way superior businesses will tend to gravitate towards the company or companies taking the lead in creating the superior ecosystem. Nokia is going to be truly a wonder to behold when its handset unit sales exceed the 100 million annual mark and as multiple supply chains become better at plugging deeply into that kind of unit and percentage growth. One good example is the way that traditionally PC-oriented vendors are expanding to absorb the growth of wireless and blend that with the well understood cyclicality and seasonality of PCs. QCOM is last year's news. The real rivalry to watch in the next few years is Nokia vs Motorola competing to turn that initial handset sale into technology relationships. Despite the fact that Motorola has the broader product line and seemingly more opportunities -- e.g. MOT's GIC acquisition and 80 million cable customers in China -- Nokia clearly has the momentum. "I'm amazed at the wimpy approach people take such as 'we mustn't compete with our customers'. If the customers aren't doing it, get stuck in! That's their problem." Sounds like the perfect description of Qualcomm's attitude towards its customers. We probably draw different conclusions from this.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4256)	4/18/2000 9:50:00 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

tero, Have you looked into QCOM's earnings report and hear the conference call. I sense it was more about hope for the future but i am no expert. Maybe it is a great report. Appreciate any comments on what QCOM's earnings report means for NOKIA.

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4256)	4/18/2000 10:27:00 PM
From: chirodoc	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

i give up--what is w-cdma vs. cdma2000 when i read the press they only talk about cdma. i have been reading the jousting here for a while and don't understand how w-cdma is different from cdma from cdma2000, etc. can someone give me a link or some info? thanks! long nok and ericy, no investment in qcom curtis

To: tero kuittinen who wrote (4256)	4/19/2000 2:18:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Respond to of 34857

Tero, I like to be admired for my Kamikaze courage but it's fake and I have to plead to my own form of investment wimpishness. No Tero, Tera, Tora maniacal, self-obliterating, dive-bombing for me! My investments must not go into any self-sacrificial bombings of enemy technology. I spend a lot of hours figuring out what is going on, reading all the wisdom of people like you, Gus, dave[5], Bill Frezza [who is hereby ritually flogged in passing] to ensure that my investments are not only secure but likely to be immensely profitable. Neither do I use the Merseales approach to riches; [Mercedes/Seal offspring]. If technological DNA is incompatible and likely to result only in wrecked autos and lost funds flow, I prefer to spend time at the beach in the sun than stupidly investing in CDMA dreamland. I would love to see Telecom New Zealand join with QUALCOMM, Hitachi and a few others in taking on the might of NTT. Telecom is a service provider with international pretensions which is installing CDMA now. They own a chunk of mobile business in Australia and would like to grow [which I think would be fun to watch but too risky for my money]. I agree that the plan to enter Japan with MC-CDMA is an improvisation. But that's the nature of the WWeb world at the moment. Imagine the level of improvisation going on in the UK spectrum auction as jaws drop and bids rise and carefully laid corporate spreadsheet plans are blown to smithereens. Italy and others are starting to think the beauty contest method of 3G spectrum allocation is leaving a lot of loot on the table. They are rethinking their mate's rates, spectrum for their buddies strategy. Maybe Q! is opportunistically hoping the Japan government won't notice that the 3G spectrum in Japan is worth at least $180bn [based on UK bids, population and GNP per capita] and they'll be simply given a $60bn chunk! Investors are still lunging into the WWeb world where profits are distant and a function of luck. The Nasdaq glitch is just a glitch. The New Paradigm is roaring on. There will be winners and losers of huge proportions. Ericsson came a real gutser, but recovered. Nokia has done extremely well for a decade and could continue. Conservative, nervous and reticent people will not be successful in the WWeb world. Neither will the maniacal. Knowing the difference is tricky. I'm glad you picked up on this sentence: "I'm amazed at the wimpy approach people take such as 'we mustn't compete with our customers'. If the customers aren't doing it, get stuck in! That's their problem." This is an essential part of 21st century life. The old idea of vertically-integrated conglomerates with government-set monopolies is over. Even the communist empires of China and Russia are letting competitive enterprises have at it. QUALCOMM set up licensees to compete with their own infrastructure and handset divisions. Some, even including Gregg Powers, thought the in-house royalty advantage would give the handset division a lower cost position. I was thrilled to see that Irwin and co were not into this subsidy system and if some part of MightyQ! can't do it, then outsiders can. That's the ultimate in competing with your customers = competing with your own efforts. It's a lesson that most businesses are unable to cope with and they usually sink in a morass of interdepartmental jealousies and financial shenanigans when the external world gets competitive. Charles Schwab set up their Web business to compete and too bad if that cannibalized their full-service business. The share price shows the fear and then elation as investors responded to the crazy idea and customers flocked in. Japan will NOT take kindly to this weird, insane idea. That's their problem! If they don't like it, they can go suck a lemon. While I wouldn't put it quite like that, the ASIC sales people will just have to cope with DDI/IDO's angry response and still try to get the orders. If they can't then they are out of luck. Tough! I know it's not the historic tribal approach to business, but that's the way of the world these days. Investors and companies had better get used to it. Microsoft was trying to use that old style and left to their own devices, they would have messed up without Janet, Joel and Jackson hacking at them for their stupidity. I know it's counter-intuitive, but after a while, you get used to it. Think of it as a new technological mating method. Maybe it's not fit for family viewing, but look on it like the seal in New Zealand - a fascinating feat of nature. Maurice PS: Interestingly, Ericy has belatedly got with the programme and is trying to supply all forms of CDMA. Nokia had better get with it sooner than later; they would not like to look like Motorola over the past 6 years as GSM passed them by and analogue died on the vine.