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Technology Stocks : Nokia (NOK) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4285)	4/19/2000 12:46:00 PM
From: Joar	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

<< QUALCOMM is going to rescue the Japanese sheeple from the DoCoMo shears.>> WOW! and Hallelujah! What a high-standing mission, and how grateful will not the people be?. << "....the successful will do fine and go on to take over the world, with an infinite array of devices filling a multitude of niches from remote sensing of oil wells, production processes, water meters, and Coke machines to sterephonic 3D WWeb on 'sunglasses'. (-----) It is the core of The New Paradigm.>> The "successful"??, Take over the world?? New Paradigm???? Tempting - eh...???? Please! Both the "rescue" stuff and the "infinite array of devices, (---) and Coke machines" stuff feel somewhat familiar, far from new, and hardly anything to get extremely excited over. (excuse me for also going off the topic, but just could not resist) Joar

To: Maurice Winn who wrote (4285)	4/19/2000 6:27:00 PM
From: Gus	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 34857

Same ole, same ole. After all these years, your barely comprehensible and rambling rants still take you in many directions where no man has gone before, Maurice. <g> CDMA is the superior ecosystem. MC-CDMA has the easiest upgrade path In order to get the MC-CDMA upgrade path, a carrier needs to junk its existing network and switch to an IS95 CDMAOne network which is 2 to 3 times more expensive than a GSM or TDMA network. Moreover, because of superior economies of scale, a GSM/TDMA handset will soon be at least 50% cheaper than a CDMAOne handset and that is a very serious handicap in marketing, my friend. I'm not even going to address the blatant violations of the laws of economics and human nature involved in the theoretical possibility that CDMA2000 can be overlaid over an existing GSM network. What we have seen in the real world, Maurice, is SBC junking its theoretically superior CDMAOne network and converting it to TDMA (using Nokia and NEC infrastructure) even though it involved giving free TDMA handsets to about 700k or 800k subscribers. What we have seen in the real world, Maurice, is DDI on the verge of junking its theoretically superior CDMAOne network and converting its 3 million subscribers to WCDMA. What we have seen in the real world, Maurice, is ATT organizing the Americas (mostly-TDMA) around TDMA-EDGE to rationalize the upgrade cycle (by maximizing scale economics) and set the stage for future bundling and roaming opportunities reminiscent of the way it assembled US analog and other TDMA operators around its own TDMA network in Digital One to wallop Bell Atlantic with its CDMA and analog network. GSM and PDC are variants of TDMA and account for 80-85% of the global market so you do the global map, Maurice. The press releases do not even begin to reflect the tremendous amount of work being done to harmonize TDMA and GSM. CDMAOne/CDMA2000 to follow. Sounds familiar? Think Apple in the year 1990. You're right. There is only survival or extinction. QCOM's number of active CDMAOne licensees have gone from 75 or so to only 40 or so because only QCOM makes real money in its ecosystem. NEC is typical of the CDMAOne licensee that abandoned it to refocus on TDMA and WCDMA because there is more money to be made. Don't forget the most important component of this ecosystem is the subscriber. It is more important that they make money. That means cheap and high quality communication and WWeb access. Now you're really stretching it. Of course the customer benefits from 'cheap and highly communications' but wireless is only part of the deregulatory dynamics that make it so. But the customer truly benefits when the supply chain can provide a rich matrix of choices from the high-end to the low-end. Don't take this in any way other than the constructive spirit in which it is written. I don't want to take the additional risk of continuing this discussion in the abstract and having somebody like you use that as a platform for more rants so I'm going to use a real world and ongoing example to illustrate my point. Building on its global experience, Nokia believes that at 31%, the USA is poised for rapid increase in wireless adoption. It is currently running a promotion with SBC (Pacific Bell Wireless) involving 4 phones (Nokia 5190) for the price of one contract with variable pricing. Try looking at this family-oriented program as it progresses. Look at how Nokia probably makes a little money off the phones but sets up future upgrades, particularly the dad-phone and the mom-phone. Look at how the carrier and its distributors make money in that program from the service contract, the phones, the annual upgrades and accessories. Look at how the customer benefits from that promotion and surely, the untenable rigidity of your assumptions about CDMA being the superior ecosystem becomes more visible. If not then your CDMA fanaticism is even worse than I thought.<g>