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To: Gus who wrote (4290)	4/19/2000 7:37:00 PM
From: Ruffian	Respond to of 34857

<There is only survival or extinction. QCOM's number of active CDMAOne licensees have gone from 75 or so to only 40 or so because only QCOM makes real money in its ecosystem.> Gussy-Boy, forget that IDC CEO position, you can't count.LoL! Then again it might be a perfect match, DUMB & DUMBER! qualcomm.com

To: Gus who wrote (4290)	4/19/2000 8:21:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 34857

Gus, << What we have seen in the real world, Maurice, is SBC junking its theoretically superior CDMAOne network and converting it to TDMA (using Nokia and NEC infrastructure) even though it involved giving free TDMA handsets to about 700k or 800k subscribers >> If you recall, Gus, APC Sprint Spectrum did a very similar thing (in reverse) last year with its GSM-1900 network (first operational PCS network in the US) in the Baltimore & DC area, moving all their subscibers to the parallel cdmaOne PCS Sprint Network. Free CDMA handsets in this move. Don't remember the subscriber base (mixed in with Sprints overall numbers) but pretty darned significant. Nothing to do with technology, however, so this not meant to detract from the point of your well constructed post. << DDI on the verge of junking its theoretically superior CDMAOne network and converting its 3 million subscribers to WCDMA >> 5 million now and growing? Egad, thats even worse. - Eric -

To: Gus who wrote (4290)	4/21/2000 5:47:00 AM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 34857

Gus, I am definitely rabidly CDMA as well as fanatically. The successful ecosystem will be easy to determine. We'll find out by the numbers of customers who keep buying CDMA or GSM or TDMA in the USA and elsewhere where competition allows direct comparison. I don't know about SBC, but wandering the malls in California, the numbers of CDMA handsets selling compared with June last year is dramatically increased when there seemed to be a higher proportion of other modes. So the figures have shown. So I don't get it that this shows lack of Darwinian success when the handset suppliers are scrambling to get into the business, infrastructure suppliers are doing fine, so is QUALCOMM. DDI isn't on the verge of junking their cdmaOne network. They claim to be on the verge of getting 3G spectrum and using W-CDMA [alias DS-CDMA, or VW40] in it. That's a questionable claim and one fraught with risk if QUALCOMM's consortium starts up in opposition. As I've mentioned and as shown by the British 3G spectrum auction, the Japanese spectrum should be worth over $150bn or maybe $200bn since they are more crowded, making for greater spectrum demand and value, have a higher GNP per capita and an early need for WWeb services. I think I might try out in the beauty contest for one of the licences if they are giving away that much value. I'll offer the licence administrators a 20% cut! Let's look at it another way. A little harsh and unfashionable, but c'est la vie. When Athens was top dog, Greek became popular. When the Roman Empire stretched across Europe, even the Brits thought it judicious to learn a spot of Latin. When the British Empire spread around the world, the lingua franca became English. Though some don't like the idea, the new world empire pulses from Washington. Sure, in NZ we do sheep wrestling and Finns hang out in saunas in reindeer antler hats as local cultural habits. But the USA pretty much calls the shots. Bad luck for us. That means their lingua franca has a pretty good chance of catching on. Their lingua franca is CDMA with HDR and DS-CDMA add-ons. There will need to be more economic or technical benefits or early release from W-CDMA than we have seen so far. W-CDMA won't just elbow cdma2000 out of the way unless there is compelling reason. Especially, Japan won't be able to tell a group from QUALCOMM, L M Ericsson and whoever that they are not permitted to provide 3G service in Japan [not without some serious consequences anyway]. Come in Charlene! Ready Madeleine? Maurice