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Technology Stocks : AUTOHOME, Inc -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: gpowell who wrote (21112)	4/20/2000 4:55:00 PM
From: Jack Hartmann	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 29970

GP: Thanks for the CC notes. Made cool post of the day too. ATHM is expecting lower revenue from ad/e-commerce. This purchase of Blue Mountain Arts to further eyeball revenue is a failed strategy as you mentioned. I haven't clicked on a banner ads since October. Revenue, which was seen to be about 50/50 split between subscription fees and ad/e-commerce, will tilt more towards subscription fees. This shift is involuntary as ATHM cannot generate the ad revenues that it probably had hoped for. Many internet startups like KOOP spent millions foolishly on banner ads and exclusive content agreements. This mistake will be avoided by many other companies in the future. Maybe when 50% of the country has high speed access, then banner ads will be like TV ads will have sound and mini-videos. Horrors! I think it's quite funny that ATHM has now focused on a growth story. I see ATT installing fiber optic cable in our area. Cable rates now have risen 10% since T took over from Warner Cable. Apparently the first to get subscribers/customers in the broadband race may be the eventual winner. Most people don't switch ISPs out here. They probably will stick with first high speed connection company they sign up with unless there are reoccuring system problems. GTE now aggressively marketing DSL in our area. They were willing to bill DSL with the regular phone bill. $30 a month. I was going to sign up, but will wait for a while to see if ATHM offers something. 150,000 subscribers 2000, 2 million subscribers 2003 This doesn't sound right for international numbers. Profitability will be reached in 2003. Of course, TJ and Bell cackled loudly in the last PR and video in January about how ATHM was profitable that quarter. A good swift kick is what they need. This is a 180 degree shift by Bell toward present vs. future profitability. I just don't have the faith in the management to put my money back in ATHM yet. Jack

To: gpowell who wrote (21112)	4/20/2000 11:03:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 29970

Profitability will be reached in 2003 That statement says "sell me". What the market has been hinting now for several months is that these future ideas about profitability are nothing more than hand waving and mumbojumbo. The valuation models which tried to factor in the next 5 years are no longer believed, and stocks valued on them were, and will continue to be sold. This is a shift that's going to stick because it's a shift which brings the market closer to a reality we're in need of. Interpret that how you will. To value something like tech as if even two years hence can be known is misguided, and the numbers will be guided lower as the future fails to confirm the past. The market is again beginning to assign future risk to tech. It has much more risk left to assign, that's the shift that's underestimated because it was soooo good when risk was ignored. In any case, you'll soon get actual confirmation that projections even into 2001 were overly optimistic all around. Of course, much disbelief at first, but the market has already spoken. I have no position in ATHM.