Chaz,
<< "bastard" version such as DoCoMo seems to plan to try out a year from now >>
I do not exactly buy the "bastard" version nomenclature. DoCoMo may implement a non standard version of IMT-2000 initially but will bring it into compliance quickly. They have made that clear on numerous occassions. They are both the early adopter of 3G and the driver of 3G.
If anything is a "bastard" version of IMT-2000, I think it will be the initial implementations of 1X and perhaps 3X. While they might be considered a migratory step, I do not think that the initial implementations of 1x are exactly what OHG has in mind for a harmonized version of 3G.
<< I for one will continue to place my bet on the approach which is practical, clear and will happen - the CDMA path toward CDMA2000 on the current set of frequencies. >>
Which current set of frequencies? The IMT-2000 3G frequencies, or the Americas 1G/2G cellular frequencies and Europe & Asias existing 2G frequencies?
Good article on these and related subjects from "Roam" below:
FOUNDATIONS OF 3G: UMTS - It's your round
February 2000
Europe's licensing process for the Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) will pick up momentum this year, following the early start made by Finland in 1999.
In addition to Internet and Web access and interaction, UMTS opens the door to a slew of new mobile data applications - such as electronic banking, telemedicine and satellite-based navigation - that are either impossible or cumbersome with today's narrowband wireless systems.
The UMTS forum estimates that there will be one billion wireless users by 2005 and two billion by 2010, when almost all wireless systems are expected to be 3rd generation. When UMTS is rolled out, it will offer wireless data at three different speeds, the highest being 2Mbps for stationary wireless terminals. Even when a UMTS terminal is in motion, data speeds would be much higher than today's 2nd generation devices, as UMTS is designed to operate at 384kbps in pedestrian situations, and at 144kbps in a moving vehicle.
Handsets may look different from today's wireless phones, and customers are likely to have a choice of several types and styles of terminals, depending on where and how they want to use them. And whereas UMTS is thought of mostly in connection with cell phones, it could end up encompassing a wide range of wireless networks, ideally covering cordless systems, private wireless networks and satellite networks. Users would be able to move seamlessly between these infrastructures without a break in service.
GSM EVOLUTION TO UMTS
Both the UMTS Forum and the GSM Association have outlined specific evolution paths and timelines to 3G. They are designed to help service providers get full value from their investment in current infrastructure while gradually introducing new data services based first on overlay, then on new infrastructure.
Service providers also want to preserve the ability for 2G users to use their phones on 3G systems.
The evolution has already started with the introduction of general packet radio service (GPRS), the first step in placing packet-based architectures on the GSM network. GPRS will allow access to Internet, e-mail and other IP-based data services at faster speeds and lower costs by allocating a portion of the service provider's spectrum to packet-based radio.
GPRS is an overlay architecture that essentially strips off packet data traffic from the mobile network. In its first phase, it calls for two additional components to be added to the mobile network - the GPRS gateway and the GPRS service node. These act as a gateway between the GPRS network and public data networks, including the Internet, and also connect to other GPRS networks to facilitate GPRS roaming.
The second phase of GPRS development introduces two new schemes, enhanced data for GSM evolution (EDGE) and high-speed circuit switched data (HSCSD).
EDGE, a packet data transmission format currently in the ETSI standardisation process, is expected to boost data speeds to 384kbps and is viewed as a potential hedge for 2G carriers who are unable to get 3G licenses. HSCSD, which groups up to four consecutive GSM time slots to create a bandwidth channel of 57.6kbps, is considered the endpoint in circuit switched data over wireless - a connection-oriented data format. Unlike EDGE, it relies on an end-to-end connection, just like a voice call. Hence, it is expected to be a more expensive service used principally for video conferencing and bandwidth intensive applications.
The introduction of GPRS will be a pivotal step on the road to UMTS, as it will be the service providers' first experience with packet-based data architectures and services. Service providers face a host of issues relating to the pricing, tariffing and billing of data communications.
On top of that, as of now, there are no GPRS-enabled handsets. From the GSM service provider perspective, the nature of their business may change from that of a local exchange telephone company to that of an ISP - albeit a wireless one.
UMTS TIMESCALES
The UMTS timeline calls for trials to begin in 2001 and commercial rollout to occur between 2002 and 2005. In reality, how well and how fast wireless service providers can confront and solve the initial data challenges posed by GPRS will ultimately affect the timing of the rollout.
Unlike GPRS, UMTS will use a new air interface and require infrastructure upgrades, and development work will continue concurrently with GPRS. Current GSM service providers all plan ultimately to evolve to UMTS.
In Europe, licences have begun to be awarded to a new round of service providers, for whom UMTS will be a starting point. In the autumn of 1999, Finland was the first country to grant 3G licenses. The UK's deadline for applications to bid for a licence was January this year. The Netherlands and Germany are expected to follow shortly afterwards, with Belgium, Austria, France and Portugal scheduled to grant licences later in the year.
The UMTS Forum also reports that there are a number of UMTS field trials being set up, including one by Telenor of Norway in Oslo and Lillehammer and another by Cegetel in France. However, the first commercial UMTS systems are not expected to arrive until 2002.
AROUND THE WORLD
In virtually every nation except the United States, spectrum has been set aside for 3G/UMTS. In the US, PCS now sits on the space that the rest of the world will use for the next generation of wireless. American hopes are pinned on using the PCS spectrum to deliver 3G services.
Meanwhile, some nations will enter the licensing process far ahead of others, simply because their existing spectrum has been fully consumed.
Such a shortage propelled Japan toward 3G by sheer necessity, and it will provide the first commercial implementation of 3G of any kind in 2001.
Japan's 3G format, however, will not be European UMTS, but wideband code division multiple access (W-CDMA). W-CDMA has been in trials in Thailand and Singapore since last year, and has attracted the interest of most Asian countries except South Korea, where the manufacturing base is tilted toward CDMA-2000.
UMTS actually is a W-CDMA technology. The key difference is that the air interface differs from Japan's version. The GSM air interface uses time division techniques, by creating time slots within individual radio channels to increase capacity. The UMTS evolution path retains the time division format, which is why European UMTS is sometimes referred to in engineering and standardisation documents as TD-CDMA.
Japan, on the other hand, developed a version of W-CDMA using frequency division techniques. In 1998, the GSM Association invited NTT DoCoMo, the leading proponent of W-CDMA, to join. In tandem with the Japanese, the GSM group began work on the universal terrestrial radio access (UTRA) concept. ETSI has since picked up the UTRA work.
The goal of UTRA is to bring together the time division and frequency division aspects of UMTS and W-CDMA, in the hope of making both standards more compatible. In the year and a half since the initiative started, it has become more common to see Japan's W-CDMA grouped under the general UMTS umbrella.
NORTH AMERICAN FORMATS
North America is dominated by two digital wireless formats: IS-136, commonly known as TDMA, and IS-95, better known as cdmaOne. Both formats have made inroads in Latin America. There are also cdmaOne systems in South Korea, Japan and parts of China. The UWCC, which represents TDMA interests, claims 65 million TDMA users worldwide. The CDMA Development Group (CDG) says its should reach the same number of users worldwide this year.
Through cooperation with the GSM Association and 3GPP, UWCC is trying to bring its IS-136 migration path to 3G in line with UMTS in Europe.
The UWCC, for example, is working toward adopting EDGE in IS-136 networks.
Although the US Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA), which advocates CDMA2000 in the IMT-2000 process, is an observer in 3GPP, neither it nor the CDG have moved as close as the other groups toward smoothing differences between standards. Given that the UWCC and GSM Association only signed their Memorandum of Understanding in November last year, it is too early to rule out greater participation by CDMA2000 interests.
UMTS LICENSING - THE WHAT, WHO, WHERE AND HOW
With more than 60 licences in 15 countries within the next five to six years, there are many opportunities for aspiring UMTS operators. They will need to prioritise where they focus their efforts. This means an evaluation process to narrow down the list to those licences that are most attractive.
There is an increasing trend for licences to be awarded by auction. The auction approach provides greater transparency to participants, but at a cost of several hundred million Euros per licensee. It seems unlikely that a new entrant could afford to outbid an incumbent where the number of UMTS licences is no greater than the number of 2G licences.
The competitive assessment approach may require more preparation, but can secure a licence at substantially lower cost than an auction. The key is to put together the right consortium that can demonstrate its ability to deliver against each of the government's objectives.
The opportunities for the new entrants will be in those countries that are offering more UMTS licences than exist in 2G - it is hard to image a situation where a licence is worth more to a new entrant than to an incumbent - the incumbent will surely bid for the licence to prevent the entry of a new player.
Where the licence is to be given by competitive assessment, the potential for success of a new entrant will very much depend on the objectives of the national regulator.
For many months, the technical experts were saying that four licences was the maximum number that could be carved out of the UMTS assignment.
Then a band of new entrants in the UK persuaded the government to have a second look, and it was agreed that the assignment could be cut into five lots.
In the UK, the 5th licence means that each operator needs a different strategy to improve its position beyond that of a conventional 'me too' player. Now that the 5th licence genie is out of the bottle, it will be difficult to put it back. In those countries where there are already four 2G operators, new entrants will surely be able to put together a case for five licences.
- Eric - |
