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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (107044)	4/20/2000 3:41:00 PM
From: eplace	Respond to of 1577883

Pravin...your predictions sound good to me. I agree, I think 2nd quarter earnings will also be over $2.00 per share. I did a little better in the contest, but I'll have to admit I just got lucky. I especially like your $350 price target. That would make Jan option holders very well off. The only thing that worries me (and that is very short term) is that another dive in the Nasdaq could hit AMD for 10 to 15 points. That is nothing serious to the long term longs. If that happens it would provide a short term buying opportunity. I'm not predicting that will happen, but it is a possibility. Regards Ed P.

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (107044)	4/20/2000 3:48:00 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1577883

Pravin: I wholly agree and can hardly wait to purchase more calls early next week once I have pried cash free from April 70's...We've had 3 major price jumps over the past 6 months, each in the range of 35%...The interval between each surge has declined and we are now due for the next one...A solid base has been established between $70 and $80 with record volumes over the past 2 weeks...The next upswing could be very abrupt and very large owing to this new base...AMD wants to go higher, much higher...

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (107044)	4/21/2000 2:13:00 AM
From: Joe NYC	Respond to of 1577883

Pravin, (or anyone else) Re: Willamette How long does it take from the first sample to arrive at OEM, to the first computer ready for sale? Especially for a new core? It seems that the sampling of Merced has been going on for long time, maybe 6 months. But so far, I don't think we heard of any Willy samples. Joe

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (107044)	4/21/2000 2:49:00 PM
From: boris_a	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1577883

Pravin, AMD at $350/share I try to imagine how many investors would be prepared to pay around $60B for AMD in January01 Of course an investor would consider the long term prospectus of AMD. I`m quite confident that AMD will stay highly competitive at least until 3Q01. To really hamper AMD Intel will need to bring the price for FatWilly systems at least down to the midrange. But until then INTC has a big hole in their roadmap. And honestly I dont believe they can fill this hole with some improved Celeron/PIII steppings. But afterwards, the future remains much more unpredictable now. (Well, I dont dare to say the above statement is a prediction). An investor willing to pay $350/sh must have confidence in AMD engineering being able to sustain a competitive MHz performance for much longer time. Being convinced (by professional experience) that engineering quality doesnt correlate strongly with engineer headcount, I think odds are good. However, one big, big question remains: can AMD enter the corporate market? Frankly, until now we have absolutely no strong indication to believe this. (Of course we all are going to be really happy if this happens). For now, we can only hope that a clear MHz leadership will be sufficient. IMHO, the most important thing until now regarding long term prospectus is the fact that AMD is successful in establishing an independent x86/Windows platform. From now on and given the performance lead until 3Q01 Intel can no longer dictate the direction of the technical development of the platform. This power is going back to the place where it belongs: to the market. (And if VIA wants still to reach out for #1 in the chipset biz, they know very well that they need a strong, competitive AMD. Otherwise Intel can `slam the door` (tm T.Viola) anytime it chooses). If a long term scenario like above gains really nice probability until december already, your $350/sh estimate might be not absurd. Boris

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (107044)	4/21/2000 2:56:00 PM
From: Mani1	Respond to of 1577883

Pravin, I think you are being too conservative. Maybe you need to work on not holding back :) Mani

To: Pravin Kamdar who wrote (107044)	4/30/2000 11:53:00 AM
From: niceguy767	Respond to of 1577883

Pravin: Re: Just reread your April 20th post when AMD was at $75..."Today is a tough day for those of you with April $80 and $85 options, but next week will be the beginning of the next $20 spurt in AMD's stock price. For the last several months,AMD has had nice up-swings starting in the last week of the month and ending in the second week of the following month, and none of the preceeding months had the strength of the fundamentals that we have now. We have recently had: * Blowout earnings that caused analyst EPS upgrades that establish AMD as a high growth stock with a PE of 15. * Positive forward guidance from AMD. * Intel stating that they can not meet current demand -- resulting in windfall business for AMD in Q2. Next week we will have: * The Spitfire announcement with a possible Dell announcement. * The Shareholder meeting with a possible stock split announcement. Later in the quarter: * In May, we should have the Thunderbird announcement. * In June, we should see a positive earnings warning. Then, in July, earnings will be announced to be over $2.00 per share -- twice analyst expectations. Dresden will be ramping strong, and Q3 guidance will be very positive. At this time, Intel will announce that they are sampling Willamette. They will do this to try to stop the stock price slide towards Tad's $60 price target caused by a horrid Q3 (with equity sales of 1 billion dollars). All the analysts, except Tad, will uniformly declare that Willamette will crush AMD. This will cause AMD to drop from $150 to $120 in mid July. Later in Q3, it will become evident that AMD is shipping high margin Thunderbirds in high volume, while Willamette has yet to appear in any volume at all. Q3 earnings of $4.00 per share will shock the investment world. AMD announces that Mustang is sampling on 770 based SMP boards, and that 0.13u is yielding higher than expected bin splits. Spitfire and Thunderbird will own the Christmas shopping season, while Willamette starts to show up in a few expensive workstations. Year 2000 earnings come in at over $10 per share and the stock exits the year over $350 per share. But, then again, I could be wrong (if my EPS contest entry is any indication!) Comment: Great overview and probably not wildly out of line when considered within the context of Mr. Sander's speech at the annual meeting...I particularly like the $150 in July and $320 at year end price projections assuming Mr. Sander's production estimates are realized! Thanks again for your forward-looking thoughts!