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Pastimes : All Clowns Must Be Destroyed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (28104)	4/20/2000 10:45:00 PM
From: IceShark	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

Tip works in the power plant supply side. Frame your questions better.

To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (28104)	4/21/2000 9:57:00 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42523

air conditioning is responsible for high rates of growth in the past 10 - 15 years, but saturation is already quite high -- it is the temperature sensitive loads (ac) coupled with larger sq footage that has given the accelerated rate in very recent history, but it is this very recent rate that folks are extrapolating to buy generators going forward -- some call this the "hockey stick." You can see this in projections made by a lot of industries. Indeed, this is in the revenue growth projections of many industries There is overinestment and a concentration of assets which has come about from the Fed's looseness and the monetization of debt, but there are other regulatory factors which have served to further distort investment in the utility industry ... heaven help us if natural gas prices go through the roof in a few years about the time prices are deregulated for electrical power. But the point is -- even the speculators in this industry have taken huge positions in physical assets -- completely unheard as relates to type and size -- positions that they would not have taken without the loose credit policies and the false impression given that such demand growth can grow without limit ... Again, there are some things peculiar to the industry, but I think it is an economy-wide phenomena. If our policy makers weren't so screwed up -- we'd be building a few coal plants here and there and scads of folks wouldn't be buying up gas turbines without a clue where they are going to put half of them ... I hear it over and over again: "The market can't be wrong ..." It can and will be wrong when the capital markets are distorted by central banks -- if markets truly had been allowed to work in setting the price of credit -- we would be in a much different environment since at least '97, perhaps since '95.