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To: Jimbo who wrote (9344)	4/21/2000 9:40:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 24042

On assumption that this is not simply an intermediate term correction: We have a very long way to go yet--bear markets take a long time (12 to 36 months are not unusual; sometimes more) to play out. 1. Sentiment. As I listen to the news and read the threads on SI and elsewhere, I see very little discussion of "bear market." Instead, I notice the present theme is 'don't buy stocks without earnings, go for the ones with strong growth present and future and real earnings.' The implication is that stocks will rise again, if you just get the flavour of the week right. Yes, there is concern and vexation. But, no, this is still a NO FEAR (tm) market. For us to even remotely approach the area of a bottom, this has to go and be replaced with wholesale nashing and negativity. In a market top, the general theme is 'you can't help but make money, buy on dips' whereas public knowledge at a bottom is 'the stock market is dangerous and will never come back.' I know it seems impossible, given how long we've been thrilled by our gains but, try to imagine 'everybody, everywhere' trash-talking the stock markets; try to imagine that the viewership (numbers) of CNBC is way down and the number of posts on SI is way down and what posts there are, are completely without faith. When Stewart is singing that tune, we'll be approaching the bottom; right now, he still has too much faith in wall street. At bottom, there will be an actual recession or talk everwhere of impending recession and potential depression. Seem impossible? It does to me and that, I think, is one reason why sentiment is too high. No fear. (What's really awful about writing this is that you only get that kind of horrible sentiment, after millions of people like you and me have actually been seriously hurt by the grinding down of our investment accounts. First we see our paper gains evaporate, then we see our principle value--the money we saved from our jobs! go away too. Its the shattering of dreams that is most destructive, I think.) 2. Valuations. What's the average p/e of the S&P 500 at present? It's still approx 40% above its historical average. When Stewart reaches psychological bottom, he will sell out at prices that are as unreasonably low as they were unreasonably high when he bought; Mr. "D" will fire him. Therefore, we should expect that the mean p/e of the S&P 500 at the bottom will be well below the historical mean. We're a very long way from that. There is no relish in this for me. With regard, David Todtman

To: Jimbo who wrote (9344)	4/21/2000 2:32:00 PM
From: Gerald Walls	Respond to of 24042

David - I agree with the slow grinding part of a bear market - for me the only way to make money, since I tend to buy and hold stocks is to sell covered calls month after month until we come out of it. Any thoughts on what are the first signs of coming out of a bear market ? When your covered calls are suddenly underwater and capping your gains.