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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bob Dobbs who wrote (51868)	4/23/2000 3:34:00 PM
From: goldsheet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116762

> . Issues of technology improvement, supply increases, etc. are only gradual, moderating factors, relevant over periods of 10-20 years Over the last ten years production has gone from 2023mt to 2569mt, a 546mt increase, which should continue into the future (over 1 billion ounces of proven and probable reserves) The 10 year average CBs sales is 265mt and 10 year average forward sales was 154mt, combined 419mt. The extra primary mine production is a much more significant factor than forward sales and central banks sales combined. Scrap averages 500mt which also makes it more significant than forward sales and hedging combined. From 1995 to 1997 scrap averaged a 600mt, and culminated with an Asian currency crisis dumping almost 1100mt in 1998 - probably the most significant factor in the gold market in the last decade. > plunge of the gold price in the face of an overwhelming SUPPLY DEFICIT of over 500 tons There has always been a supply deficit. Over the last ten years it has been filled by an average central bank supply of 265Mt per year, with a high of 622mt in 1992. There is not too much unusual about the last three years, other than the CBs have announced their sales instead of just sneaking it into the markets. The agreed cap of 400mt doesn't impress me either because it is higher than the 10 year average of 265mt. > In fact, Bob Johnson makes no mention whatsoever, in any comments on this thread to my knowledge, of the status of these gold loans, and certainly of their relevancy to the gold price. When I asked him directly about these matters in an earlier post, he simply ignored me. No intention to have ignored you. Sometimes after reading 100+ news releases, answering 100+ emails, updating my website by adding links, updating graphs, etc.. I either don't read SI post carefully or sometimes just look at the headers and skip to the newest ones. If you sent a post directly to me and I missed it, my apologies. I'm lucky I caught the mention of my name in this post to Ken Benes. Gold loans are probably the fifth or sixth item on my personal list of items that afffect the gold prices. I don't think they are as large as some claim or as significant as other factors that I can more easily quantify and analyze. They may affect the perception of the gold market (fear, greed, conspiracy, collusion, etc..) as much as the real numbers that I do have a handle on. Admittedly, the investor perception of gold market is important, but when I can't figure out the fundamentals, I resort to technical analysis.

To: Bob Dobbs who wrote (51868)	4/23/2000 5:03:00 PM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

Mr. Dobbs sez in regard to mobilized CB gold, i.e., gold loans: While sufficient, a catastrophe is not necessary to raise the gold price. It will rise eventually, all other factors being equal, because the gold loans will have to be repaid with physical metal at some unknown point in the future. Sir, this is the point where you make your biggest mistake. You see, gold loans do NOT have to be paid back in gold! No, Siree! NOT A'TALL! And we who have thought so, counted on, dreamed of the catastrophic day, etc., have all been in la la land for buying that premise. ...that is, we bought that falsehood until Ashanti and Cambior contracts showed their fine print, and some very astute ace reporters on this thread dug up and posted said fine print. (I copied a great many illuminating posts to hard drive as I'm sure many others did as well, where the wiggle room out of physical gold delivery is spelled out in copiously detailed fine print!!!) You might do well to spend some time with the Ashanti debacle as well as the Cambior debacle as of Last September's gold run and the tremendous deficits they have incurred. Both companies, w/out a doubt have resolved their "gold repayment bind" by acceptance of being forcibly "re-structured." Restructured means: A) both mining companies bought back SOME naked gold calls i.e., their unhedged short positions which were horrid in the spiking gold market; B) both mining companies forfeited part of their equity ownership to the counterparties left holding the 'non existant' gold loans C) both mining companies, with the help of Alan Greenspan and the respective 22 counterparty banks took short term debt, collateralized by gold and turned it into long term paper debt at *ZERO* interest and *ZERO* callability, with guaranteed renewability of these multiplied Hundreds of Millions' of dollar restructed bad loans to lousy credit risks and sloppy managements/BOD. Not bad for common everyday, good old-fashioned hangin' offense gold thieves, eh? Furthermore, both companies were extended additional lines of credit by their already screwed once bullion bankers to go out and do the same fool thing again at no margin requirements whatsoever, just so they could keep their "doors to the mines" open, per se, and make this go away, and bring the price of gold back down until the final disgorgement of the Brits and the Swiss have finally been re-distributed to the Asian's primarily so they can soon launch THEIR reserve currency, currently known as the AMU. Study the new paradigm, Mr. Dobbs, okay? No longer does a gold collateralized loan have to be paid in gold...it sez so in the fine print from which they worked out "other solutions." That more than anything puts another nail in the coffin of the rising price goldbugs hopes and dreams...the saber tooth tiger has no sabers...and all he can do is "growlf" at the three shorts for one long physical gold ounce position stupid bozos who continue to play the game now that they know they're too big to fail. Greed at its finest...right here in the ol'e gold market...whodda thunk it???<g> Have a good weekend.

To: Bob Dobbs who wrote (51868)	4/23/2000 5:44:00 PM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116762

BOB: The best manifestation of CB activities aimed at suppressing POG is the very low lease rates prevailing now. Remember Greenspan's statement not too long ago -- CENTRAL BANKS STAND READY TO LEASE GOLD IN INCREASING QUANTITIES SHOULD THE PRICE RISE. Remember the CBs are lending gold to shorters at around 1% on average. The only conceivable motive for this is to suppress POG and help their friends at the bullion banks. That is the bottom line. The other big negative for gold is the strong dollar. As long as capital continues to flow into the US at its current astronomical rate, a major gold rally is out of the question. But with the greenback making a blowoff top similar to the NASDAQ recently, a sharp drop in thebuck is likely before long. That should trigger a decent gold rally. But unless demand rises enough to offset the inevitable attempt by the CBs and their allies to cap the rally at low levels, I doubt if POG will be able to move much above $300.