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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (31180)	4/23/2000 10:49:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Here are some posts from RB ============= This is in response to an article that appeared in the trade press where a reporter at Brainshare during Drew Major's speech tried to guage audience response. ============== I was in the Brainshare audience and listened to the same speech There was nothing in the audience's response that was "telling". The journalist simply projected his own assessment of the audience onto the audience. I do think the journalist is picking up on an internal debate within Novell. The company is divided between those that get the internet, like Drew Major and most of the engineering force, and those that don't understand how to sell into it at all, the managers who built their careers on Groupwise and Netware. You only have to look at SLitz's departure last year to understand the depth of these divisions. Schmidt seems to try the approach of getting the legacy thinkers to understand what the more advanced thinkers are doing. Education and persuasion for one side and sacrificing a few good projects and delaying some forward looking initiatives on the other. For example the new message of One Net and the Net Services message on the sales side are intended to break down resistance to thinking of Novell as selling LAN OS and management software. A lot of resources have gone into Novell consulting projects and Eric has spent a lot of personal time with big enterprise customers who have to think out what to do with the internet and their companies. You'll hear the term build-out used frequently. The journalist is merely raising the issue of how do you get your customers (and your typical Novell managers who follow these customers and don't lead them) from buying Novells products in a LAN context to buying them in a "one net" or internet context? Well that is a problem for Novell. There are two answers. One is coming from the net services side. Novell will show its corporate customers how to embrace the internet safely through directories and provide them with the consulting and integrator resources to make that happen. Another answer is coming from those within the company who got the internet meesage in the mid 90's --- show the customer as directly as possible the beneift of the internet based technology. Whether it is Drew Major showing how internet infrastructure operating systems have to be structured to cut the cost of expensive bandwidth or whether it is the EGUIDE group showing how to put something on the desk of every corporate end user that shows the value of directories immediately and directly, it is this latter group within Novell that is getting very restless with the legacy managers. I don't think Eric can escape the problem of having one foot in each camp. I don't think the legacy managers can escape the diminishing Netware sales and the history of ignorant decisions they have made about the internet in the past. Dividing the company along net services and internet operating system lines makes sense to me as a solution. Q2 will be an Andy Grove inflection point for the company and its senior management. There will not be any acceptable excuses for a revenue shortfall for this investor.

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (31180)	4/23/2000 10:51:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Respond to of 42771

Some comments on the April 9th(?) Conference Call When I listened to the April Conference Call in New York, post BRainshare but prior to the annual meeting, I heard what others probably also heard: Eric complimenting Stewart Nelson profusely. Stewart referring to what he planned to do "over the next year." So if you feel that Stewart is the representative of "the Netware/Groupwise crowd clutching to past glory" then perhaps you will admit they have a tight grip and perhaps you will look at what my speech contained as a possible way out for Novell shareholders. ================ At the annual shareholders meeting, I read some comments into the record. The speech can be heard on Novell's webcast site. The text can be found over on the SI thread. I would very much like to get more opinions from the people that post on Raging Bull about that speech. (Keep in mind those are not just my ideas that I was expressing.) After the meeting Eric came down off the podium and we had a long talk about what was said. I'm not at liberty to discuss what was discussed. However I can tell you that if you listen to the webcast there isn't any conflict between what I was saying and what was said by Eric about directory based apps if you view them as complimentary strategies to the one I proposed. (Of course there are differences of emphasis, timing, and structure. Since I'm outside the company I'm not in a position to comment on these details.) ===================== I expect Q2 to bring some changes at Novell. Either we are on track for revenue or we are not. As Eric said, the stockholders are entitled to demand revenue growth. THAT IS WHAT THE SUBORDINATE MANAGEMENT OF THE COMPANY HAS PROMISED US. The protection of shareholder value is Eric's repsonsibility. I expect good Q2 results and I want the subordinate management at Novell held responsible for delivering them. NO EXCUSES!!! Most of the people posting here are shareholders. What do you think?

To: Paul Fiondella who wrote (31180)	4/23/2000 11:05:00 PM
From: Paul Fiondella	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 42771

Watching NOVL I'm sitting here with a pile of options reports. Over the weekend I took another look at some of the analyst ratings. For one thing they have now reduced Q2 estimates from $.17 to $.16. My gut tells me that NOVL share price has already been discounted for an expected bad Q2. Last quarter a number of people played the expectations of small investors for a blow out quarter and the run up as an opportunity to dump shares. This quarter we may have the reverse play. The stock is in the pits and expectations are very very low. I'm looking for some way to guage what is happening and what will happen. Any ideas?