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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Pink Minion who wrote (54)	4/24/2000 3:41:00 AM
From: FLSTF97	Respond to of 276

Nothing is "normal" about 100% sales growth, but I seem to recall that at least Lam in that period was growing at a very high rate. It may have been close to 100%. FATBOY

To: Pink Minion who wrote (54)	4/25/2000 12:28:00 PM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

I can't speak to Lam's numbers, and the AMAT "numbers" I remember are eroded to approximations by time (memory is the second thing to go as I get older), but here goes. When AMAT released the P5000 platform, they went from ca. $500,000/qtr to over $30 million, in just a quarter or two. Okay, this was an important platform, and AMAT was fairly well prepared for this. In 92/93, sales growth rates of over 100% were routine on a year-to-year basis, with some quarters above 50% quarter-to-quarter. Same sort of trend in 1994/95, when AMAT began to ramp up production at its Austin facility. AMAT was growing so fast, in output and sales, that Jim Morgan confidently predicted they'd be a $10 billion firm by 1999-2000. I do remember clearly that AMAT had its first annual sales rate over $1 billion in 1994, and went over $1 billion per quarter in 1995. That's 4x, or 300%, no matter how you stack it. Then a drop, then a rebound in the 1997 time frame, before we went into the tank generally in 1998 and 1999. Curiously, demand for electronics was stable globally throughout the decade, but manufacturing and macroeconomics went through wild swings. Equipment makers were amongst the wildest swingers, reaching huge growth numbers only to fall off by as much as 80% in output within a few quarters. One year they're mothballing buildings for tax breaks, and the next they can't find enough space to build.... Hope this helps! Mitch