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To: yu who wrote (47940)	4/24/2000 9:27:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>>So how old are you now, 29-ish? ;-)<<< yu, ooooooooh babee, i remember 29, it was a very good year, but i don't remember it that good -gggggg- this is my favorite birthday post, with thanks to MW, for his chart, exponential or incremental, changes in reality, changes in price. Message 13491201

To: yu who wrote (47940)	4/24/2000 9:31:00 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Von Bobanov... Happy Birthday. Daily Economic Commentary US April 24, 2000 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Warnings Of Higher Costs and Prices From This Week's Reports The first quarter estimate of GDP and employment costs are scheduled for publication on Thursday, April 27. There is little doubt about the strength in demand we will obtain from the GDP report. Consumption spending is predicted to have risen at annualized rate of 7.0% in the first quarter, up from 5.9% in the fourth quarter. Gross domestic purchases should match the pace seen the fourth quarter (+7.2%). With a likely moderation in government spending during the first quarter after the sharp increase in the final three months of 1999, private sector domestic spending is likely to surpass the fourth quarter mark. Business investment expenditures and residential investment outlays are each predicted to show a pickup in the first quarter. Enough said about demand, turning attention to inflation, the gross domestic price deflator increased 2.0% in the fourth quarter, after an average of 1.2% in the second and third quarter. The CPI rose at annual rate of 4.0% in the first quarter vs a 2.9% increase in the prior quarter. The core GDP deflator, excluding food and energy, increased at an annualized pace of 2.2% in the fourth quarter - the largest quarterly gain since the first quarter of 1997. The core CPI advanced at annual rate of 3.2% during the three months ended March, following a 1.8% increase during the three months ended December. The Employment Cost Index climbed 1.1% in the fourth quarter, inclusive of a 0.9% increase in the wages and salaries and a 1.3% jump in benefit costs. On a year-to-year basis, the headline translates into a 3.4% gain in the fourth quarter. Average hourly earnings data of the first quarter suggest that the wage and salary component of employment costs should show a significant increase. Average hourly earnings increased at annual rate of 4.8% during the January-March, compared with a 2.7% increase in the previous three-month period. Due to poor adjustments of benefits costs a deceleration of this component is expected in the first quarter. The BLS is scheduled to publish new seasonal factors that could address the problem. Even with a favorable benefit costs component, street estimates are for a 0.9% increase in employment costs during the first quarter. Based on the unrevised data, this number translates into a 4.0% increase in overall employment costs during the first quarter - a hefty 60 basis point increase from the previous quarter. Given this harmful combination of persistent consumer demand, tight labor markets and rising wages costs and prices, the FOMC is certain to raise the funds rate on May 16. However, the magnitude of the hike will demand on the nature of upcoming reports. The above mentioned two reports are most likely to prompt markets to reconsider the projected 25 basis point hike. Asha Bangalore Economist *The information herein is based on sources which The Northern Trust Company believes to be reliable, but we cannot warrant its accuracy or completeness. Such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions. ntrs.com You Remain, Birthday Boy Bearic Von Bobanov <ggg>