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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: chaz who wrote (23434)	4/25/2000 7:01:00 AM
From: Bruce Brown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Ten days ago or so, I went to cash 100% (but I kept GMST), so I'm now looking for new entry points. I know...I know...I get bashed around on margin use, and now I'm opening myself up to the "T" word...but my hunch is that we're going to see still lower prices across the board. You might be right about prices going lower in the short or even intermediate term, yet we have certainly entered a classic point where the money is switching hands and selling is drying up in terms of volume. Last Monday as well as yesterday created what might be looked back upon as reflection points. It certainly could 'reflect' more on the downside. I am not a disciple of technical analysis, yet when people start talking about 'gap filling' on stocks like Qualcomm around $67 - 70 a share and predicting index target points - I have to smile at the longer term and hope that some of what could be looked upon as 'weak hands' are able to focus on that longer term and not give sway to letting go of their great investments at this low or near low point. In fact, it might be an increase in 'awareness' that is keeping some of these 'weak hands' from tossing in the towel and giving what the 'experts' are looking for in terms of a really bloody day beyond belief where everything gets hacked for that 'capitulation' moment where complete agreement is formed to make an announcement 'that was it'. I even was able to discuss with my wife over the weekend and make the decision to lower our cash position of 30% to around 20%. Therefore, I added shares of our investments which I feel presented an opportunity that will pay off in the longer term. The "comfort zone" was maintained on her end by still keeping 20% in cash. I was able to increase my positions in some excellent companies that look to be selling off beyond valuation concerns at this point. When I factor in their growth rates, market position and demand for their technology - I love them just as much now as I did when they were trading at these prices last September/October and in some cases - long before that. However, the companies have increased their revenues and market position since that time boosting my confidence even more. I was buying them then and yesterday was no different. Will it prove fruitful in the longer term? I've got a lot of years to watch it unfold. If I was wrong, then I trust that I will be able to learn from the experience and apply it in the future. BB

To: chaz who wrote (23434)	4/25/2000 10:01:00 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Chaz, Multex (here on SI) gives [QCOM estimtates for ]FY2000 of $1.08, which I think we would consider a lo-ball. You give it $1.29, which I think is a shade low, I'm more inclined at $1.40-$1.50. What's your basis for thinking that? The reason I ask is that in the last three quarters the company has been beating estimates only marginally. It's been by 3% to 8% but it's been only by a penny or two. For the company to earn $1.40 - $1.50 this fiscal year it will have to earn about twice as much in the last two quarters as it earned in the first two quarters and it will have to beat current estimates for those quarters by about 55% to 70%. I remember six to twelve months ago I had reason to believe estimates were extraordinarily low and gave my reasons for thinking so. It's been awhile since I've examined them that closely and am hoping you can do my homework for me. :) --Mike Buckley