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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: AllansAlias who wrote (48072)	4/25/2000 4:25:00 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

Allan Haggett: Don't Island Reversals normally take place at a new top/bottom? This one did not. Frankly I don't know what the accepted rule is. You may be right. I am not a traditional chartist as I am self-taught. I got my start with the basic overview printed with my Dow Jones Market Analyzer Plus Investment Software back in the eighties. Originally written for Dow Jones by RTR Software. (How ya doing Clay Burch.) I also used RTR's supplement to the DJMA Plus called Technifilter Plus. (DOS based programs at the time.) Both had brief overviews of technical analysis. Those overviews were the platforms I used to learn on my own. I have never read the traditional books. (The one exception: I did read Prector's book on Ewave after the 87 correction.) Frankly I discovered many psychological trading patterns on my own through many years of charting the markets every single night. I do recognize many of the traditional patterns and choose to call them by the traditional names as it makes it easier to communicate with others. However, I do not necessarily follow the rules established by others that have written books. I have my own rules and sometimes they very from the books. I only focus on indicators and patterns that I believe have a high percentage of reliability. I choose not to waste my time with obscure indicators or patterns that have low reliability. Actually island reversal patterns are not high on my list! Regards, LG

To: AllansAlias who wrote (48072)	4/25/2000 10:36:00 PM
From: TheKelster	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 99985

This is not a moot point. (ps: Don't Island Reversals normally take place at a new top/bottom? This one did not. A moot point perhaps.) Steve Nison goes to great length to impress upon us that candlesticks are not to be used without first considering the western methods of trendlines, channels, and other formations. Only when used while taking consideration of the major trends are candlesticks valid. For a possible example of what may be happening examine Qcom. Specifically look back to last December through February of this year. I can count 3-4 island reversals in this time period. They are a bit obscure but not undefinable. Because these reversals are not occurring at the tail end of a long trend, they merely represent the extreme war between the bears and the bulls. After a long and explosive move up Qcom lost 1/2 it's value. This brought out a new wave of buyers but a struggle ensued because of the strength of the sellers. In the long run the second wave buyers proved not to be as strong as the first wave buyers. The first wave buyers were greater in numbers and the exit assault continued unabated. I believe this is happening in the Naz. The bulls are rallying back mightily but the bears continue an unrelenting campaign. It may take another month but I believe the bears are going to win out. The volatility attests to the viciousness of the battle. When the bulls do finally turn tail and run the bears will chase them as far as Ramoth-Giliad and slay them till the blood runs waist deep. :-) Four or more all time record gaps in April 2,000. You think "that's it" we can all form a base and go back to normal? Not a chance. There's a storm a brewing. All cash, KK