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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment-Sell when they're singing in the streets -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (57)	4/26/2000 8:29:00 AM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 276

Thanks, Gottfried. These numbers are even better than I remembered them to be! I guess mental erosion doesn't always put a kinder face on things, eh? <sigh> I talked about this w/ my PSU (primary spousal unit) last evening, and she said in 1994 it was the metal deposition group, then called Sputter, that made $1 billion for the year. That now seems a bit high, given that Etch was still the dominant economic product at AMAT then. Could be that Sputter reached a run rate of $250M one quarter that year, tho, and that's nearly the same thing, right? Mitch

To: Gottfried who wrote (57)	4/26/2000 11:29:00 AM
From: Dr. Mitchell R. White	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 276

Gottfried and threaders, a quick and dirty analysis of those numbers you provided gives an interesting result: Year Sales Other Total % Chg (y/y) 1989 $501 $1 $502 1990 $567 $2 $569 13.3 1991 $638 $5 $643 13.0 1992 $751 $5 $756 17.6 1993 $1,080 $7 $1,087 43.8 1994 $1,659 $20 $1,679 54.5 1995 $3,061 $26 $3,087 83.9 1996 $4,144 $39 $4,183 35.5 1997 $4,074 $128 $4,202 0.5 1998 $4,041 $79 $4,120 -2.0 1999 $4,859 $126 $4,985 21.0 AMAT has seen growth over the last decade or so that's an average of 28.1% y/y (24.5% compounded), or 8.93X in 11 years. Highest y/y was in 1995, nearly doubling; 1997 and 1998 were essentially flat. Interesting speculations: In the 1995/6 time frame, AMAT management felt they could be a $10 billion revenues company by 1999/2000. To produce that from their 1989 figure, they would need 35% compounded over the decade, not the 25% they actually saw. Frankly, that's not such a stretch, and had we not seen the double-whammy downturn last time, they might have made it. Keeping in mind that they're going to be within striking distance of $8 billion this fiscal year, they're darn close! Indeed, AMAT was on the 35% compounded growth curve as late as 1995, due to their 89% revenues growth that year. So "slowing down" from that torrid pace to a mere 35% y/y would have made their numbers. At current (approximately) 45% growth y/y, AMAT will be back on the long-term 35% growth curve in a year or so. The problem then becomes, how big is the market? At 35% growth y/y, AMAT exceeds the estimated size of the whole semi equipment market by about 2006, and at 45% growth the date moves up to 2004/2005 time frame. What to do, what to do.... Mitch I guess I can quit bashing AMAT management for making such outrageous projections in the past! <grin>