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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (48108)	4/25/2000 8:57:00 PM
From: Saulamanca	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, Why doesn`t David start his own monkey thread ? That way anyone interested in his monkey indicator can learn about it there and he can put a link to his website in the header with no objections. --Jim

To: HairBall who wrote (48108)	4/25/2000 9:05:00 PM
From: LTK007	Read Replies (5) \| Respond to of 99985

LG and market historians,is anyone knowing of a market situation that has been so wildly volitile in a time frame as short as the one that we have been in? i get ready to place calls on an index,but before i can even blink,it's already has burst up,so then i say gees i will buy some puts,but before i can pick a spot,downs it goes,fast,i am just too slow for this,me thinks:) max

To: HairBall who wrote (48108)	4/26/2000 2:07:00 PM
From: David Lee Smith	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

David Lee Smith: First of all I never asked you to stop posting on this thread. I only asked you to stop spaming your web site and your Monkey Indicator. (Many readers from your thread and I do not consider the reference to the model and the web site as SPAM. It is very much on the topic of market trends and strategies and market direction. Asking me not to post my model is like asking me not to post my opinion -- what ever happened to freedom of speech. Why are you trying to censure your tread? Your invitation to refer to links in your original message opens the door for useful links. Since some of your readers find my model interesting or useful, why do you wish to deny them of this resource?) You said: If the stock market has a serious rally by the end of this week I will gladly quit posting on your thread and go away! But if the market has a serious decline, I would hope you would eat this "spam" and become a MomentuMonkey fan! (The week is not over. I would say that it ends at the market close next Monday. I don't take yesterday's rally as serious, but rather a sucker's rally to lure unsuspecting speculators into the market.) It seems you only want to post to MDD is you can spam your web site. By the way, I would call a almost 70 point rally in the SPX a serious rally. (Not true. I sincerely believe in the model.) You said your Monkey gave a sell signal yesterday 4/24 a month after the top on 3.24 and after the SPX had declined as much as (13.75%) at the low on 4/14. Did you happen to notice that a serious decline has been in progress before the Monkey sell signal? (Actually, the Monkey gave a sell signal before the record decline last Friday, too and it has been bearish since year-end with many readings below -15% before a sharp decline.) After I asked you to stop spaming you replied you were doing a service to this thread. You also said: the original model has been negative on the stock market since December of 1997. Clearly, there needed some adjustments to today's market environment! Clearly your original model missed a lot of the hyper bull market in the SPX. (Yes, but I still believe the original model works. The original was a valuation model and few would argue that the hyper-bull market was driven by investors because they though the market was cheap. It was driven by momentum investors...that's why I changed the model. But it's fundamental underpinnings remain valuation. If you rode the market up, it does no good if the market takes back what it gave you. You've only wasted time!) You also said: In the fourth quarter of 1999, I made some serious adjustments to the model. I added a growth valuation and a momentum component. I also added a US dollar adjustment. Since that time, there have been no buy signals. Clearly your new model missed significant upside movement in the SPX. You say you got a sell signal at the close yesterday 4/24 because you got a (-18.5%) reading. But on your new "How to Use the MomentuMonkey" it clearly alludes to below a (-15%) as a significant signal. Your web site reveals a reading below (-15%) on 4/19 (-17.4%). (Yes, the signals have recently become very bearish...that is very significant in my opinion) I asked you several times how readers of MDD could benefit by visiting your web site and how do we know when a buy or sell signal is rendered? How do we benefit from this "service" you are doing for this thread? You never replied. (How many times do I have to reply before you acknowledge that I have responded. I posted a new "How to use MomentuoMonkey" on my website and told you about it. I did this for you and the few others who were wondering how to benefit from the model.) However, after you post today, I took a look at your web site to read your "How to use MomentuMonkey"... You said: IT IS NOT THE ABSOLUTE PRICE TARGET THAT MATTERS, BUT THE AMOUNT THE TARGET PRICE IS AWAY FROM THE CURRENT PRICE. TARGET PRICE IN EXCESS OF -15% HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH VIOLENT DOWNWARD MOVES IN THE STOCK MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM. A NEGATIVE READING OF LESS THAN 0 BUT GREATER THAN -15%, IS USUALLY A DULL FLAT TO DOWNISH MARKET. The model has not issued a buy signal since it was revised and I do not have enough history to give much guidance when it gives a positive reading. For example, will a reading of 0 to +15% be a short-term buy signal or a longer term one? Will a +15% or more be associated with a short-term buy signal. I don't know. I will watch the model and make those judgments as I get to know that side of the model in the future.READING OF LESS THAN 0 BUT GREATER THAN -15%, IS USUALLY A DULL FLAT TO DOWNISH MARKET How does one use that? Then if a reading is (-15% or less) you say...PRICE. TARGET PRICE IN EXCESS OF -15% HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH VIOLENT DOWNWARD MOVES IN THE STOCK MARKET IN THE SHORT TERM Clearly you Monkey combining both old and new models have not generated a buy signal since Dec 1997. I still can't tell how someone can effectively use your Monkey indicator! Frankly you say you don't know when a buy signal is rendered. You are vague about what a (0 > -15%) readings implies and give little guidance about what to do when a reading below (-15%) is generated! (Not true! The new model did not exist until the fourth quarter of 1999. I have not formally back-tested the model, but I did some informal testing and it gave several good buy signals since 1997...I just do not have the data conveniently available. I do plan to do it formally and publish the results (a two year back test) as you requested. I think it's a good idea. But please give me some time! Also, I am quite clear that a -15% reading or less is extremely bearish short-term (less than a week). David please stop spaming your Monkey web site on this thread. It has received more attention than any other web site ever posted on this thread. Enough please... (Perhaps you have chased other opinions off your thread too. Why do you waste your time chasing off legitimate posters? Frankly, I would rather be back testing my model than defending your slanderous remarks!) Regards, LG Yours truly, David Lee Smith