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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Wowzer who wrote (65299)	4/26/2000 1:34:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

The move was on BHI's upside surprise & it was NOT the energy speciality funds buying today... Those API/DOE numbers AINT pretty folks !!!! 307 M boe in storage - and in merely 3 damn weeks of similar adds - a case for $18 Crude Oil can be made on supply numbers ! - CAVEAT EMPTOR ~ Again; OPEC screwed up bigtime on the "timing" of a supply increase; they took the political heat off Clinton/Richardson and lowered American gasoline prices. If you have ANY doubt of the "real" Oilpatch money - being "hinkey" and "worried" about the sustainability of crude prices here - merely look to the majors & integrateds. They CRUSHED the earnings numbers... look at AHC KMG TX CHV XOM et al - and nada,.... like Rory said - a yawn.... That is because the "real" Oilpatch money is in the majors/integrateds and they are WORRIED here about supply fundamentals - those storage numbers are STRONGLY trending the wrong way - at the worst possible time - opening the spindoctor door - hell, blowing it off the hinges... This looks, smells and feels like April-May 1998 fwiw.... The supply numbers turned well before crude futures re-acted, or the shareprices did. The underlying fundamentals are still superb - but ! ~ those supply numbers have put the breaks on BIG MONEY - entering & staying put here. The real - "no turning back" Boom 2000 Rally can not and will not happen without a substantial rally in the Majors & Integrateds. Could a company do anymore than what BSNX just did ? - they are 35% off their highs - where they had lower earnings, cash flow and production, with lower Nat Gas prices ?!?!?! - I am holding fwiw - still THE value play in Nat Gas - be patient... But, I would be taking profits in waves, all the way up on UPR NBL EOG BR XTO VPI et al... you have to; NG has great underlying supply/demand fundamentals - but, it did last September as well - and when NG simply pulled back; the market fell out on these E&P's. The time to BUY E&P's is when they disconnect from the underlying commodity prices and earnings - the time to sell them is when they "connect" - as in - right now... The rotation-momenteum money allways comes to Drillers and Service Co's - allways has, allways will - look at the charts from the rallies of 1997, Jan & March 1998 and early 1999. They will especially get the momenteum rotation here -given that many E&P's are fairly/fully valued. To retain the upside to the tremendous NG story - only stay in those stocks that are clearly undervalued - BSNX still leads the list, in the larger names UCL was a gift and I still hold my TX CHV UCL OXY P KMG fwiw... Today; is some rotation due to BHI's upside and a bit of a flight to safety - due to the econimic numbers released tomorrow via the ECI GDP numbers. I've taken lots of tech profits & oilpatch profits the last two days - I stand with no margin and 50% cash right here, right now... I think we "could" see a terrible selloff tomorrow all across the board on bad ECI GDP #'s - indicative of a still hot economy. The Oilpatch is not immune from that selloff either fwiw. Imho; there is nothing that is going to make the Oilpatch liftoff tomorrow - tech could blow off 300+ points & the DOW 200-300 imho. Given its a friday - lots of people will not carry positions over the weekend either. I just made more money in two weeks in techland than I ever envisioned - many, many 50% leveraged moves off the bottoms - I've rang the register, sold off all margin; kept my core holds in both tech & oils and am waiting for opportunity to buy cheaper - and to hopefully steal a couple of nice core holds... Oilpatchwise - we MUST draw down supply in the next couple of weeks. With the Easter-Spring Break - Memorial Day driving demand season here; we should. But ! - if we dont and supply trends towards 320 M BOE (the guillotine rests there imo) - I'd be taking profits and be off ALL margin; I'd be off ALL margin here fwiw. In this environment - I would be selling in waves - maybe 20% of core positions for each 10% move up in shareprice appreciation, or sell 10%, on ea 5% move up - a 2:1 ratio here (that's what I did; allthough I sold 3:1 - sold 30% on ea 10% move in the late stage rally here on my E&P's like UPR EOG NBL XTO etc). Sell the strength - buy the weakness. Buy the companies that the market has not recognized the fundamental value in as yet (BSNX) and sell those they they have (EOG NBL )... Again; watch the majors & integrateds - that's where both the BIG & SMART Money plays the oilpatch - untill they start moving - given their tremendous earnings upside; the BOOM 2000 Train - may take a breather here and perhaps we waffle between OSX 95-115ish here untill we get supply numbers back sub 300 M boe and we know what OPEC compliance is... Tomorrow could be real interesting with those economic releases.... all the risk is to the downside; as there is nothing happening to cause an OSX breakout - but, there sure as hell is something that could cause a 5-7% blow off imho... We shall see ~ *** API/DOE #'s are THE watch indicator here... crude will react slowly for now... but a slow bleed of .20c here .50 c there starts to add up...