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To: Hawkmoon who wrote (51966)	4/26/2000 11:34:00 PM
From: GST	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116759

RON <Asia is a different story as an historic recession in Japan produced little change. It isn't just Japan. It's China also. And I don't see how the economic malaise in those economies can be restructured without accepting some very harsh cultural and economic medicine. Merging banks ain't going to cut it.> Have to disagree on China -- the changes there are huge. I have been in China a number of times the past couple of years and I am astounded by the pace of change -- it seems real enough to me. I am not talking about construction and cranes etc -- I am talking about restructuring, unemployment, things getting shut down, labor unrest and on and on. They are not just talking change -- it seems to be happening. I don't think I can say the asme about Japan. There are signs of change, but lots of things are "same old". In Japan the big changes are inter-generational -- out of control kids in school, tons of women that hit 30 and are not married who say "to hell with it, I just am not going to get married" -- 20 something kids everywhere looking like a freakish offshoots of the 1960s in the US -- etc. Japan just seem lost and confused.

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (51966)	4/27/2000 10:12:00 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 116759

<However, the fly in the ointment is that even if Germany does restructure, the WHOLE EEC must also restructure or the Germans will find themselves subsidizing the porkbarrel socialist policies of France and Italy. And the friction caused by such subsidization will tear the EEC apart.> You seem a bit clueless. When the Germans reunited, the Germans paid, not Italy. What are you saying? <Maybe the labor unions are being forced to accept concessions, but that does not assist the overall governmental welfare system. Unions can be forced to make concessions since the general level of unemployment puts their jobs at risk (or the corporation will relocate elsewhere). However, governmental benefits there, as here, are considered inalienable rights once granted.> Again, you seem a bit clueless. Government and unions are inter-twined and both are adressing the welfare state as a MAJOR concern. You'll have to wake up and start reading the paper. Your statement: <When we see some change on the political front with entitlements, then I may feel they are turning the corner.> Just shows you don't know what's going on... not that it means they will be 'like us'... I'm sure they will be 'more socialist' as long as we're alive. But if you compare asset prices in the two countries you wouldn't blink at plunking down some good coin to buy shares in the banks you're whining about compared to this country. And again you've also got a situation where value is being released in the future vs already lean as can be assets here. As for the big picture. I believe you are missing a very important part of the puzzel. Germany is fiscally very conservative. They can easily borrow in the markets to fund their retirement plan as they scale back on future generations [which IS happening if you've been paying attention]. Compare that to the U.S. and you find another positive. All in all, we agree to disagree. That's fine, but I'm telling you I believe you're about 10 years behind the times... that's not to say that Germany isn't 25 years behind! But remember, it's not a static world, investment banks are terrible excited about the fat to be cut and value to be unleashed BECAUSE ITS STARTING TO HAPPEN. You say it's not, that's fine, let everyone else come to their own conclusions. DAK