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To: GST who wrote (51972)	4/27/2000 12:14:00 AM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116760

Problem with China, IMO, is that they face some the very same cultural challenges that the Japanese face. But then you have to layer on the incredibly corrupt totalitarian political structure that seeks only its own survival and prosperity. I see things ending badly for China since history has shown few totalitarian regimes having the capacity to transfer political power from the priviledged few to the masses. And I do differentiate between authoritarian regimes, which normally rely on the support of the business sector for a measure of political support. But as we saw in Russia, a breakdown of political authority can quickly turn into political plundering of state owned assets. These politicians have no real claim of ownership over these enterprises. They just seize control and proclaim ownership of these enterprises without going through a privatization step. The differences may seem fine, but the historical record shows that it is far easier for a dictatorship to become a democracy than it is for a institutionally corrupt political apparatii to evolve into one. It ofter requires confrontation and revolution. It has been 10 years since the wall came down in Russia and only now do we see a leader who is seeking to make himself into a Russian Pinochet. Having "two economies, one system" may sound good to the world, but eventually the rubber has to hit the road and a capitalist economy is a direct threat to the priviledged existences of China's communist party elite. It will be interesting to watch. The current crackdown on a Falun Gong is very representative to the cracks that are beginning to appear in the Chinese leadership's ability to control the desires of their people. Once freedom is sniffed, it is wildly contagious and notoriously difficult to put backed into the bottle from whence it came. Regards, Ron