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Technology Stocks : The New Qualcomm - a S&P500 company -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SKIP PAUL who wrote (9338)	4/26/2000 10:33:00 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 13582

royalties from Europe may accrue to QUALCOMM years faster than most investors currently expect. Man, sure wish I knew what "most investors currently expect" so an intelligent buy/sell/hold decision could be made. Most investors meaning shares outstanding. Is it The Rich Janitor who thinks that the current IS-95 to 3G MC business and wireless services is quite enough to justify the share price and anything else is gravy? Is it Tom Chen's Merrill customers who were allegedly busy dumping big blocks today because first DDI and now Korea appears to be wavering in the wind? Is it $250 ps Wally the P at Paine Webber "all roads lead to QCOM"? Or is it close to my personal opinion? That the world will end up around 70% DS and 30% MC; 3G interoperability issues will be resolved; that the Q will get the equivalent of the pre-95 IPR royalty rates (like NOK and MOT have on IS-95) on DS until those fundamental patents expire, and Q will pay others (directly or indirectly) for DS overlay IPR in order to sell DS ASIC's? (If "most investors" still believe Wally's scenario, I need out fast! If "most investors" are with The Rich Janitor, let Tom Chen's folks sell, relax, have a drink, go to bed, see ya next quarter.) This thread and the NOK thread are great forums (fora?) for formulating an opinion as to the probabilities of various technology adoption outcomes, and the potential market sizes and timing of same. But they are lousy (because of institutional holdings) for figuring out what set of expectations are built into today's market price. Only with the latter, combined with the former, can an intelligent buy, sell, or hold decision be made. Which is really why the heck we are all here. (This is Silicon Investor, not Silicon Technologist, right?) Ramsey, please don't tell me to look for the answers on that other thread in the form of Jim Willie and Jmanvegas tea readings and voodoo charts!