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Strategies & Market Trends : Jim's Nasdaq100 Special as a basket. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Les H who wrote (1681)	4/28/2000 7:34:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

HI Les: Here's a list of some fund runners ( up&down) but for the most part are Hot when their Hot. I only track NO LOAD , and mostly no transfer fee funds there are a few TFs' I track and buy but not in this list. I don't buy these to hold and hold and hold I switch and or go cash in a heart beat. I try to buy in on down days when I expect a rally to follow and sell before it peters out. I sold Thrgx today ..as the market looked edgy and may dip Monday..shes up 9.96% in the last two days, and about 12% from where I bout in. ------------------------------ I set all the navs on the 26th >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>scroll over .....>>>>>> Fri Apr 28 6:49pm ET - U.S. Markets Closed. Symbol Last Trade Change Volume Avg Vol Value Change Gain Trade Date ^SPX 5:00PM 1452.43 -12.49 -0.85% N/A N/A -$12.49 -0.85% -$8.56 -0.59% 26-Apr-00 FHLSX Apr 28 52.06 +1.79 +3.56% N/A N/A $1.79 +3.56% $1.79 +3.56% 26-Apr-00 FTCHX Apr 28 90.29 +2.62 +2.99% N/A N/A $2.62 +2.99% $6.66 +7.96% 26-Apr-00 GICPX Apr 28 32.83 +0.75 +2.34% N/A N/A $0.75 +2.34% $0.25 +0.77% 26-Apr-00 ISWCX Apr 28 54.54 +1.90 +3.61% N/A N/A $1.90 +3.61% $3.25 +6.34% 26-Apr-00 MNGCX Apr 28 36.20 +1.39 +3.99% N/A N/A $1.39 +3.99% $1.27 +3.64% 26-Apr-00 RYMAX Apr 28 18.81 +0.11 +0.59% N/A N/A $0.11 +0.59% $0.71 +3.92% 26-Apr-00 VWTKX Apr 28 53.25 +1.98 +3.86% N/A N/A $1.98 +3.86% $3.84 +7.77% 26-Apr-00 PBTCX Apr 28 69.45 +3.07 +4.62% N/A N/A $3.07 +4.62% $7.13 +11.44% 26-Apr-00 RSIFX Apr 28 40.89 +0.55 +1.36% N/A N/A $0.55 +1.36% $2.69 +7.04% 26-Apr-00 TVFQX Apr 28 113.44 +3.90 +3.56% N/A N/A $3.90 +3.56% $8.78 +8.39% 26-Apr-00 TIFQX Apr 28 56.99 +2.27 +4.15% N/A N/A $2.27 +4.15% $5.15 +9.93% 26-Apr-00 TLFQX Apr 28 55.43 +1.20 +2.21% N/A N/A $1.20 +2.21% $3.30 +6.33% 26-Apr-00 FTCHX Apr 28 90.29 +2.62 +2.99% N/A N/A $2.62 +2.99% $6.66 +7.96% 26-Apr-00 NTCHX Apr 28 56.22 +1.77 +3.25% N/A N/A $1.77 +3.25% $4.13 +7.93% 26-Apr-00 ROGSX Apr 28 31.14 +0.95 +3.15% N/A N/A $0.95 +3.15% $2.59 +9.07% 26-Apr-00 SCUTX Apr 28 45.36 +1.37 +3.11% N/A N/A $1.37 +3.11% $3.57 +8.54% 26-Apr-00 RYTAX Apr 28 28.71 +0.17 +0.60% N/A N/A $0.17 +0.60% $1.12 +4.06% 26-Apr-00 RYSAX Apr 28 39.02 +0.85 +2.23% N/A N/A $0.85 +2.23% $2.75 +7.58% 26-Apr-00 WWIFX Apr 28 34.28 +1.09 +3.28% N/A N/A $1.09 +3.28% $2.54 +8.00% 26-Apr-00 THRGX Apr 28 24.17 +0.63 +2.68% N/A N/A $0.63 +2.68% $2.19 +9.96% 26-Apr-00 ------------------------- Most all these funds took large hits towards the last of March and early April..but Thrgx stopped most of his bleeding before the April sell off, and I liked his cash position..I'll be buying it back on any dip, and maybe even if it don't. --------------- PBTCX is also a hot runner, but who will win the next race I can't tell.. The problem with timing these is you have to look forward a few days..OR if you don't want to swap in and out hedge with a few puts on the leading stocks ( fast ) and only after they start down , then on down days your roped off. ---------------------- I didn't do much today flipped TX late in the day, squeezed some cash out of wcom but hung onto a 20- to 40 bull spread 2002.. Same with CPQ but kept a 15 to 25 2002 spread. Thats a cute one as it cost me 2.46 net. Still have GBLX 20 to 25 ..real cute as cost to me was zero..( well commissions of 58.60 ) as I sold the 25 for exactly what I paid for the 20. SBC 30 to 40..cost 6.29 ------------- Longer term I'm holding MO..for about $9.50..calls sold out in 2002 at 10 let me collect the dividend effectively TWICE..now if she drops below 10 I could get hurt. -------------- CNC is the only thing I have that's under water a little but I sold enough calls on her I'm not really hurting Took on SGI recently my cost is 6.21 they can have her at 10..also got in e-loan EELN , cost 3.60 they can have her at 5.. ---------------- My Money market still stands at about 80% in my stock accounts. I'm still having a hard time finding any bargains But I'm still looking The dollar is still strong ( and very high )..if it will hold we could go on back up..but I don't really see a new high until after more of a wash out or at least a lot of basing . It's tradable but rough.. Jim

To: Les H who wrote (1681)	4/28/2000 11:01:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Respond to of 2103

Les; You caused me to go back and look it over some more all in all he hasn't got as good a track record as I thought on top of that it's a short one. I was impressed with his e-mail and the cash on hand but I see several others I think I like better. Thanx Jim

To: Les H who wrote (1681)	4/30/2000 3:58:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2103

Les; I traded out of the THRGX Friday and started looking at some others.. Was I ever surprised .. Just about every hot fund I looked at has closed to new investors.. I've never seen so many funds that have done this at one time. Sort term it may look good, and we may rally more, but longer term it says to me the market has likely put in it's high for some time to come. ------------------- There is nothing in the past like this to go on except that most funds who closed found out later that the ability to manage the money gave only a temporary advantage and when the market did it's "thing" good enough the original investors just couldn't come up with enough money to buy the dips, or for that matter to pay off the ones who got out so they had to sell stocks. Short term it can help them, long term it don't unless they are very very very Big. ------------------------- In 97 and 98 the market went up really nice and some funds did close..( nothing like the amount taht closed this year ).. But what I noticed about 90% of the ones I saw close back in 97 ; was they soon peaked and most of them have never gotten back to any kind of leadership role.. ---------------- An example ; I was in the OAKSX back in 97 and it was a hot fund when it closed. I got out that Dec of 97 it went up one more time in 98 but then whamy.. look at it now. quote.yahoo.com They just reopened..but it will take time to coax investors back in. That's a picture Of what I think is going to happen to the big majority of these funds taht have closed this year and there are so many funds that closed this year it's going to be pure hell on the market when it happens. --------------------- There are other signs that we may have put in the top.. and after this rally is over a really sharp drop could be coming..it's to soon to call it but the mutual fund leaders are now in a catch22 situation which has a nasty delayed after effect. ------------------- Some of the other signs is how the WWW funds and nut stocks lost their leadership..causing the last down turn.. The market follows the leaders.. New leadership took over ( THE SOX )..now when it starts down look out below.. Jim