To: CAtechTrader who wrote (16801 ) 4/30/2000 1:54:00 AM From: jack bittner Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 35685
i ask these questions not to make a point, but, largely in ignorance, to ask about a negative case about qcom - hoping you will respond with points that will assure me enough to re-buy a stock that did very well for me in '99. do you see these as qcom problems?: 1. Even at about half its high, the stock is either at or close to 100 times earnings. that, it seems to me is priced for perfection.- and that's ok, if its prospects are perfect. 2. the uspto (us patent office) site shows qcom's key patents expiring in 2003. i've asked all over SI if this is correct, some people grant the point but say it's not important; but no one directly says it's right or wrong. If it's right, competitors will flood into the cdma market and cut prices; and if they start after 2003, they won't have to sign royalty contracts with qcom. 3. last week the ny times had an article about a chinese woman arrested in an outlying province for mailing local newspapers to her husband in another province. she was arrested for passing state secrets. those killer-bureaucrats do not need their slaves to have the best portable internet access provider, enabling them to read about the world outside. they may never sign that qcom contract. 4. ubiquity of the installed base is powerful. convenience, inertia makes people take the thing that's easiest to get, that does the job they want NOW. att has tdma and anyone who knows a bit about tech has contempt for that. but att covers all 50 states. it's easy to get and competitively priced. in a totally unscientific tiny-sample poll, i ask many people i see using a cell phone which they use: 100% att - 100% tdma. procter & gamble, kellogs, mcdonalds, coca-cola - 100s of giant purveyors are enormously successful selling sickening (literally) tasteless crap, so offering the best is not sufficient for enormous success, you must achieve ubiquity. but qcom's stock price is priced for enormous success. if achieving full coverage of the market turns out to take a lot longer, could the stock market lose patience with qcom?