Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jim_p who wrote (65442)	4/28/2000 10:39:00 AM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

From Lehman this morning on WFT: We expect a significant pickup in earnings to begin in third quarter of this year driven by a number of factors: (1) pricing improvements in drilling & intervention services, completion, and lift; (2) an acceleration in the international drilling recovery led by Brazil, the North Sea and West Africa; (3) growth in emerging businesses such as underbalanced drilling and sand control screens; and (4) the impact of cost reduction efforts in compression and lift. big

To: jim_p who wrote (65442)	4/28/2000 11:05:00 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

BR downgrade - "the wall" - they dont go up forever... <<Lehman added that the stock was approaching its price target of $42. >> re:CAM - allready 90% priced for that peak earnings upside imho - this was a short candidate waiting to happen on any further upside given for a takeout by HAL etc... too damn pricey - take the money & rotate...GAAP, or GARP ? CAM, or PGO ??? - hello people ! Look at the remaining % upside to anlyst targets & the underlying fundamentals valuations - PE P/CF P/BK - upside to peak cycle values etc = no brainer...rotate, rotate , rotate ! These are classic plays on "taking the money & running" imho - both stocks (BR CAM) at, or near analysts price targets just as the OSX hits resistance itself. There are 3 main requirements for the OSX to break thru to the next wave - trading range. 1. Return of upper $20's crude; or the confident belief that $22-$25 is sustainable LT - which will require storage numbers/API drawdowns, news & confidence of strong OPEC compliance - both need perhaps another month, or so to sort out and as earnings season is over & we haven't broke thru as a sector - gee, which way within this trading band do you think we go as we enter the "no news" period between qtrs...? 2. Earnings to ramp well thru present estimates - many E&P's did this and did not break out, but instead sold off - that is a clear message that the Street is NOT willing to take these companies to "late cycle - peak multiples" as yet; so play the "take 30% off the table for each 7.5 to 10% move up from here" game. - then sit for re-buying the inevitable pullback of 1/3rd to 1/2 of the move - as the sector then "re-bases" and builds into the next trading range wave. 3. "Major" - Sector rotation - which comes from 2 fronts: 1. Fear - not there yet - wont be as long as the NAZ rallies 2. Explosive earnings & the belief that they are sustainable - E&P's have the "explosiveness" - but, the question of sustainability is not yet answered; OSX - do NOT have the "explosiveness" in earnings yet - but, the drillers could have in 1-2 qtrs & the service plays could have in 2-3 qtrs. ... play the trading range. There are allways individual stocks that warrant holding thru sector resistance; but in general - we are at resistance - take profits, especially the margined, leveraged money off the table and ROTATE to a laggard - PGO, CXIPY here are gifts for the patient investors - the 2 easiest 50% upside plays in the patch imho & I would trade & keep adding FLC as the driller/OSX name with unquestionably - the greatest upside at peak cycle here & ESV - the rock amongst drillers, still most leveraged to the GOM sweetspot... DO an LT play as a deepwater laggard to peakcycle... Back to Euphorialand.... VTSS been berry, berrry good to me; if it goes to the $80's - I just may be able to buy MEXP all by myself, or RRC if it keeps dying on the vine (unbelieveable)... I'll re-name them to "Slider Nat Gas" - kinda has ring to it doesn't it (VBG) ~ PS - Where's Waldo ?