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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: BigBull who wrote (65491)	4/29/2000 11:31:00 AM
From: BigBull	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

addendum to previous: The EIA has given us some key numbers to watch, relative to gasoline. 8.72 mbpd of estimated demand v. refinery rates running at between 96 and 98% of capacity. Being generous, I'll say simply refining is behind. If demand meets or exceeds 8.72 mbpd we got big problems in gas land. Problems that, realistically, OPEC can't do much about.

To: BigBull who wrote (65491)	4/30/2000 12:40:00 PM
From: Archie Meeties	Respond to of 95453

Bigbull, The larger economic consequences of the problem you have spelled out so clearly is continued, if not accelerating, crude driven inflation. The third or possibly fourth step down that path leads you to a collapsing equity market and a seriously threatened usd. No further steps are needed from there to get where you are going. You are already far enough down the gold trail.

To: BigBull who wrote (65491)	4/30/2000 3:10:00 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 95453

Bull; re: your numbers, analysis & conclusions... We are in agreement actually. Where I believe we differ is only on how the market is interpreting the data & how it's willing to transfer that interpretation into shareprice & commodity valuations. I think we may also disagree to the number of "non-beleivers" and the power & influence they wield in the marketplace. Larry Kudlow & the guy from NOESIS are not the only Perma-Oilbears out there. The main factor of my profit taking & cautionary comments of late was because of the historic examples of the market blindsiding both the Oilpatch shareprices AND commodity prices in such scenario's. When I said that there could be no true BOOM 2000 going to new highs without the Majors,Mini's & Integrateds participating - I meant it and still stand by that premise. Let me clarify a bit. Unquestionably the E&P's & OSX stocks can move against the grain of the Majors - they obviously just did. But ! - they quickly hit "The Wall" to where they will not continue through; unless Mr. Market buys into the overall health of the entire Oil Industry and that is only clearly reflected by shareprice appreciation in the Majors themselves and commodity prices as well ! You can't have negativity on the subsector that controls the purse-strings imo, while simultaneously being bullish on the benefactors of their spending... Also, while this was the traditional "build" season for crude oil inventories; that crude oil sold off on greater than expected storage builds; was a warning flag imo. Also, that many E&P's hit the wall here with $3 Nat Gas and especially with the Majors & Integrateds getting sold off on tremendous upside surprises in their recent earnings reporting - is the major warning flag imo. We had the majors report exponential increases in earnings and yet they sold off and now have 30-50% upside to their prior highs and in some cases just to their highs of the last 90 days ! - that also was a warning that Mr. Market was either not buying into the sustainability of present Oil & Gas prices, or the expansion of valuations in the companies themselves - which is obviously an expression of negative commodity price expectations. - that flashed "warning" all over... So where does that leave us ? Imo, it leaves us in a profit taking & rotation mode. I would view the OSX as having perhaps a max of 15% upside here, given we are now entering the non-news event driven period between earnings seasons; which leaves only commodity prices, or macro events as the remaining catalysts. As such, I would take profits off the table on the basis of perhaps taking 30% off the table for each 5% to 7.5% rise in value's here. I would also play what is perhaps the last "Great" rotation into a valuation anomaly. That anomaly exists in the Majors & Integrated Oils. We just had the majors report exponential increases in earnings and yet they sold off and now have 30-50% upside to their prior highs and in some cases just to their highs of the last 90 days ! They also historically have a 21% PE discount to the S&P and now have a 44% discount - into the face of their earnings superiority rising in even greater proportion to the S&P going forward given a rising rate environment. That brings us to yet another fact. With the Fed meeting looming in 2 weeks - we potentially face the worst risk vs. reward ratio's in the Oilpatch in the last year. The NASDQ is trying deperately to maintain their momenteum, but if the Fed surprises with a .50 basis point hike - nothing, not even the sterling growth & earnings prospects of the tech sector may be able to withstand Greenspans' potential necessary "Bubble Popping" event of a .50 basis point rate hike that is perhaps becoming ever more clear as necessary to put the brakes on continual signs of the cold harsh reality of inflationary pressure on all fronts. Now, more than ever I would be in a profit taking & capital preservation mode. This is NOT a high reward - low risk scenario upcoming; quite the opposite actually. I would be very nimble if on margin at all and would read the market day by day in the coming two weeks up to the FEd Meeting. The Financials are NOT reflecting that the market is going to react well to what is coming imho and I don't think that even the strongest of Tech Stocks will weather a .50 basis point rate hike storm. It all goes down in that scenario imo. I plan on being 50% cash prior to the Fed meeting. That may come in a couple of days, or the day prior to the meeting - the markets behavior will determine that. But ! ~ now, more than ever; cash & buying power has a tremendous upside as both an offensive and defensive weapon. I plan on having cash to both protect my gains & capital and to be in a position to buy into any irrational blow off which could either signal an actual and final market bottom, or could even trigger a longer term Bear Market - and then perhaps stocks like TX KMG et al will finally get their flight to safety rotation... All in all - Cash & Profit taking along with capital preservation never looked so good... As Conoco likes to say - THINK BIG - MOVE FAST ~ I am a "True Believer" in Boom 2000-2002 - but, I am still a risk vs. reward arbitrageur~ and right now, for the next two weeks - Risk is looking pretty ugly...... "Cash" ? - has a certain cachet~ in this market doesn't it (VBG)? It amazes me that we often feel we just have to be "in" ? Sometimes being "out" is the smartest play - I may even go 100% cash prior to the Fed Meeting - just that ole' gut feeling... and sometimes you just have to trust it. Going to be an interesting two weeks with all eye's glued on Greenspan. I think the market is whistling by the graveyard in unison on this one - .25 "may" be priced in and weathered by the tech stocks - but, .50 takes the entire market under imo. We shall see...