To: Think4Yourself who wrote (65591 ) 5/2/2000 12:38:00 PM From: SliderOnTheBlack Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 95453
BAMM = take profit time. "Q" - rotate & keep "some" cash... re: "play catch up " - with what - an OSX move from 115 to 119 ? - ROFLMAO ? CXIPY's outperformed UPR XTO et al over the last few days - up 10 points 25%ish... PGO & CXIPY are 50% of my Oilpatch portfolio here fwiw...and I hold FLC ESV along with some Integrateds like TX UCL KMG here that are doing just fine thank you . I wouldn't be getting too cocky quite yet (VBG)~ allthough you've done well here holding, but the likelyhood of Nat Gas staying here in the deadzone demand season ? - sell the tops people ~ especially when we get to unload it into the willing hands of those fleeing to safety (VBG). There can be more than one road to the same profits - I congratulate you for holding well here, not that you had the original idea on these however (VBG)- but, I'm still pretty cocky myself that the rotation & keeping some cash for both offsensive & defensive moves here shortly will pay off in spades - hell; it allready did with the tech blow off... If we've learned anything here it should be this: 1. The oilpatch has traded in banded stair step ranges; clearly defined since 1998. 2. The time to sell has been during the euphoria and sector rotation - as simplistic as it sounds; selling strenth (when everyone else is buying) and buying weakness (when everyone else is selling/margin called) is THE only thing that has contiually worked here. 3. Our retraces are usually 15-20% and occur even during these "bull phases" not because of selling from a macro event, but merely from a lack of continued buying pressure.That is the re-trace we will face here shortly.; or a Fed Hike led major market selloff. 4. Sell historic "tops" in commodity prices - ie: Sept 1999's peak in gas prices . A "small" retrace from the tops caused a grossly disproportionate sell off. 5. We are getting a flight to safety move here - should the Fed hike be .25 and be absored well by the market - we will hear that "sucking sound" once again as the money flows back to tech... 6. Take profits on the breakouts by the mo-mo fav's and rotating to the laggard small caps, or 2nd tier players has worked and is working - ie: HOFF CXIPY PGO - the integrated Oils which are moving nicely with much, muc less profit taking - retrace risk. 7. Never, ever be the last man holding the bag... The E&P's are toppy here "Q" - don't get whipsawed on that margin (again) .... PS - "Q" - if you go tech, you might never come back...playing a Paul Allen/Vulcan Ventures Broadband Buildout company here laaaaaarge - RCNC, they just bought a local Chicago telco/cable company and I have never ever been so confident on a growth/value play - EVER; re:Message 13540153 AT&T's confernce call this am just endorsed this companies model & space - in that they are getting their lunch eaten by bundled broadband comapnies offering wireless, voice, cable in bundled packages. RCNC is building America's premier broadband pipe - will brilliantly have 60% of the population base covered with only 6% of the geography having to be built out - vs. ATT's national old dinosaur "wires"... this is the smart money way to play the internet - tech revolution; the riskless broadband pipe buildout.... in addition to Paul Allen, LVLT's founder & Hicks Muse bought in big. OSX would have to go to 200, before I miss "anything" - about 70% of what I bought on the tech blow off is up over 50% from my buy in and I leveraged the initial move, but now - trading In & Out here - but, fully in as of today with my RCNC trade(VBG). Adios~ again - take 30% off the table on each further 10% move - the OSX tree AINT growing straight to the sky... never has, never will - a no brainer profit taking event.