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Pastimes : The Justa & Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (13608)	5/3/2000 6:40:00 PM
From: Allan Harris	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

What am I missing? Gold. Nice bottoming formation in the XAU and a number of individual stocks, ABX and HM as well as others, are beginning to rise in a series of higher highs and higher lows. A pure technician would not care that these are gold stocks, only that the price pattern is bullish. Now the P&F Gold charts are not as bullish, but I have found that my normal bar chart patterns often lead P&F patterns, so we shall see. As for other equities, I am troubled by the decline this week of the NYSE Advance-Decline line. It had been tracing out a series of higher highs and higher lows from the March 14 and April 17 double bottom, but that pattern is now in jeopardy. The next few days will tell that tale. One caveat though: The A/D line has been falling since April of 1998 without overtly tempering the "bull market." Right? Not exactly. Looking at a monthly chart, the A/D line has been falling from at least February of 1987 (my A/D data only goes back to Jan '87). There was a counter-trend rally from December 1994 to April, 1998, but on the monthly A/D chart, this 3 year rally is dwarfed by the massive 13+ year decline. So my conclusion on the A/D line? Don't conclude much from it, it appears not to have much to do with making money in the market. Sentiment. I agree with your assessment, bearish sentiment seems pervasive. I mean, come on, "I am troubled by the decline this week of the NYSE Advance-Decline line," what kind of crapola is that? A

To: Mr. BSL who wrote (13608)	5/3/2000 8:06:00 PM
From: Dave Shares	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 15132

Dick, From the "doom and gloom" in P&F land, The NYSEBP is in its own "trading range" right now, it is like it keeps churning. I have written on the P&F thread that it is a troubling pattern to me. NYSEBP in mid 40s, BPOPTI in mid 50s, to me that is OK to good, not great field position. NEM just broke out of a huge base, I cannot see that as good news for equities, and given the time of year, where is the money going to come from to fuel the next breakout rally upwards, I don't think mutual funds are sitting on big cash. Having written this, I will probably be wrong and up, up and away we will go. I am cautiously neutral here, playing what the market will give, long or short. With CSCO and AMAT reporting next week, the techs could get a nice lift. But this is more a time to trade than invest in my opinion. Best wishes always, David