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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (49503)	5/6/2000 10:40:00 AM
From: ted birnbaum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Ditto that thought, Problem is once this puppy gets going down I worry about the snowball effect taking out the safest of havens maybe even government insured money.

To: Joan Osland Graffius who wrote (49503)	5/8/2000 8:29:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Joan, simple...i'm buying a bunch of far ootm index puts whenever it seems opportune (i.e. the market looks ST overbought). i basically write those off as soon as i buy them...they're very low probability bets, that have become not-quite-as-low probability bets ever since the tightening cycle began. now, when the market moves sharply lower as it did e.g. on the day of the CPI report, i sell enough of those far ootm puts to book a slight profit and still remain with enough contracts to participate in case things take a turn for the worse. another bet worth playing here imo are calls on the Euro. the far ootm calls are very cheap and the underlying contract is fairly large, so you get a lot of leverage. disclaimer : be aware that both types of bets should only be made with money one can afford to lose...for all i know it may take a while for them to bear fruit. regards, hb