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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: minnow68 who wrote (109575)	5/6/2000 1:50:00 PM
From: kash johal	Read Replies (7) \| Respond to of 1575790

Mike, re:"You wrote "If Intel pushes out 10M timna/MB units/qtr this causes AMD major grief IMHO" I'm not sure Intel could sell that many. Even if they could, 10 million a quarter would do incredible damage to Intel's higher margin processor business. At $80 for the processor and MB, that doesn't come close to paying its share of Intel's fixed overhead costs. If Intel did this anyway, AMD could withdraw from the low end of the market. I would not shed any tears if AMD sold "only" 4 million Athlons in Q4'00 at an ASP of $250. Any extra capacity could be used for flash." My best guess is that Intel will have capacity for around 40-42M CPU's in Q4. If they sell as follows: 1M Xeons at $800 ASP = $800M 2M Willamette at $750 ASP = $1500M 20M PIII cumines at $200 ASP =$4000M 9M celeronII's at $80 ASP = $720M 10M timna/mb at $80 ASP = $800M That adds up to $7.820 Bn a decent growth and still great margins. Remember that Intel was selling the old celerons and MB's at COST a year or so ago to hurt AMD. Here they still will have a 40% margin on timna. regards, Kash