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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (109579)	5/6/2000 1:56:00 PM
From: Scumbria	Respond to of 1575781

Kash, Remember that Intel was selling the old celerons and MB's at COST a year or so ago to hurt AMD At the time, Celeron was yielding at speeds faster than AMD's fastest processors. Intel was downbinning parts just to hurt AMD. That is a very different situation from what we have now. Scumbria

To: kash johal who wrote (109579)	5/6/2000 2:45:00 PM
From: Dan3	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1575781

Re: 1M Xeons at $800 ASP = $800M 2M Willamette at $750 ASP = $1500M 20M PIII cumines at $200 ASP =$4000M 9M celeronII's at $80 ASP = $720M 10M timna/mb at $80 ASP = $800M Interesting numbers. I think that your ASPs are a little high, but not by much (and that's just a WAG on my part anyway). And Intel will probably ship some Itaniums in this time frame, too. Have you considered that, along with the new production capacity that you are taking into account, have come the additional expenses of operating and amortizing that new capacity? (Is it 3 new FABs by the end of the year?) Costs were $6 Billion in Q4 of 99 (how much of that due to CPUs is not known), now new FABs must be operated and paid for, together with a 30% increase in material and labor costs - since this forecasts growth from around 32 to 42 million units. What will happen to expenses under this scenario? What will profits be? Regards, Dan

To: kash johal who wrote (109579)	5/6/2000 5:09:00 PM
From: Daniel Schuh	Respond to of 1575781

Jeez, Kash, when did Intel's estimates go from "hundreds of thousands" of Willies this year to 2 million in Q4? Quick ramp, eh? Cheers, Dan.

To: kash johal who wrote (109579)	5/6/2000 5:15:00 PM
From: Mani1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 1575781

Kash re <<2M Willamette in Q4>> I say no way! That is very inconsistent with available info. I would be shocked if they did even half that. Intel simply does no the capacity for this kind of ramp. Willamete has much bigger die than Coppermine. Mani

To: kash johal who wrote (109579)	5/7/2000 2:08:00 AM
From: Charles R	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575781

Kash, <My best guess is that Intel will have capacity for around 40-42M CPU's in Q4.> I have been thinking about this capacity issue for a while now and can't quite make any sense of where Intel is headed. Clearly a massive amount of capacity is coming online to support aggressive ramp of large die Timna and Wilamette. Producing 40+M PIIIs in Q4 is probably a cakewalk. It will be interesting to see how Intel manages this. I don't know if there was any time Intel's history 3 new products ramped just before Christmas. Talk about logistical nightmare! <1M Xeons at $800 ASP = $800M> Recent data suggest this may be more like 2M. <2M Willamette at $750 ASP = $1500M> The ASP sounds highly unlikely and the volume also looks like a stretch. <20M PIII cumines at $200 ASP =$4000M> <9M celeronII's at $80 ASP = $720M 10M timna/mb at $80 ASP = $800M > 20M between Timna/Celeron may be right but the mix and ASPs sound a litle high given the MHz lag. <That adds up to $7.820 Bn a decent growth and still great margins. Remember that Intel was selling the old celerons and MB's at COST a year or so ago to hurt AMD. Here they still will have a 40% margin on timna.> Your point about Intel's ability to play with product mix is well taken but about 40Mu of Intel's production will most likely be substantially lower MHz than competition. That probably does not given Intel much leeway in a price war. Unless the management decides to go aggressively after market share without regard for EPS. Chuck

To: kash johal who wrote (109579)	5/7/2000 11:55:00 PM
From: pgerassi	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1575781

Dear Kash: This is the best Intel can hope for: 1M Xeon III @ 700 ASP = 700M 100K Williamette @ 700 ASP = 70M 50K Itanium @ 1000 ASP = 50M 16.85M Coppermine @ 150 ASP = 2527M 10M Celeron II @ 80 ASP = 800M 10M Timna @ 50 ASP = 500M Totals 38M @ 122.29 ASP = 4647M A far cry from where they are now with a profit of near zero. A better mix from their perspective: 1M Xeons III @ 700 = 700M 100K Williamette @ 700 = 70M 50K Itanium @ 1000 = 50M 28M Coppermine @ 150 = 4200M 6M Celeron II @ 80 = 480M 2.85M Timna @ 50 = 142M Totals: 38M @ 148.47 = 5642M They would make about 1B plus 1B from Cap Gains plus 300M in Flash equals 2.3 B assuming no losses in other areas (not happened in last 3 years). This would be a profit letdown. They can not afford a low ASP processor when they are "Capacity Constrained". A more likely bet would be between the two estimates. Pete

To: kash johal who wrote (109579)	5/7/2000 11:55:00 PM
From: pgerassi	Respond to of 1575781

Dear Kash: This is the best Intel can hope for: 1M Xeon III @ 700 ASP = 700M 100K Williamette @ 700 ASP = 70M 50K Itanium @ 1000 ASP = 50M 16.85M Coppermine @ 150 ASP = 2527M 10M Celeron II @ 80 ASP = 800M 10M Timna @ 50 ASP = 500M Totals 38M @ 122.29 ASP = 4647M A far cry from where they are now with a profit of near zero. A better mix from their perspective: 1M Xeons III @ 700 = 700M 100K Williamette @ 700 = 70M 50K Itanium @ 1000 = 50M 28M Coppermine @ 150 = 4200M 6M Celeron II @ 80 = 480M 2.85M Timna @ 50 = 142M Totals: 38M @ 148.47 = 5642M They would make about 1B plus 1B from Cap Gains plus 300M in Flash equals 2.3 B assuming no losses in other areas (not happened in last 3 years). This would be a profit letdown. They can not afford a low ASP processor when they are "Capacity Constrained". A more likely bet would be between the two estimates. Pete