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To: HandsOn who wrote (653)	5/6/2000 10:37:00 PM
From: 1-DAY-TRADER	Respond to of 790

Welcome aboard HO, we also meet in daytraders.cjb.net during market hours :)

To: HandsOn who wrote (653)	5/7/2000 11:44:00 AM
From: Rajiv	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 790

FFIV might very well bounce a few pts on Monday. However, this is one stock that I wouldn't be comfortable holding for the intermediate term. FFIV has stopped being an earnings growth story. In q2, it did not show any seq earnings growth. And there won't be any improvements for a few qtrs. The management has commented on the growth in revenues. Be sure to read the part about earnings. FFIV has used up its carried forward losses (only 1.4 MM is left) and will start being taxed at 35+% rate from later this year. This would mean that profits (on a pre-tax) basis must increase substantially for it to post greater EPS (post-tax). IMO this is unlikely - you only have to look at last qtr earnings to realize that. FFIV has added significantly to the sales and marketing teams in the last and current qtrs which will prevent this. IMO, the earnings growth curve will (at best) be flat for the next 3 quarters. CSCO's takeover of ARPT is a big negative. ARPT signed a non-exclusive reseller agreement with EXDS in late March. EXDS was/is FFIV's single largest source of revenue. I wasn't convinced by the FFIV's management's arguments that there is little overlap. I have confidence that CSCO's M&A team did not pay 6 billion for a firm with quarterly revenues of 9.5 million and which won't turn profitable till the 2nd qtr of calendar 2001. They have paid for technologies/products which are under development or in the pipeline. As for the CFO's comments about guiding revenues numbers higher, are you aware that analysts routinely have estimates for the next qtr and current fiscal year only? They fill up the blanks (rest of the quarters) in the fiscal year using a generic % number. In this case it was 10%. Surely they did not expect us to believe that they were previously expecting 10% seq revenue growth (especially when they were pumping the stock at much higher levels). My own estimates for the last quarter were revenues > 25 MM and an EPS of 24c. FFIV failed to meet both. With a flat earnings growth curve (for a min of 3 quarters), FFIV has stopped being an earnings growth story. Since it is profitable and has been around for sometime, it is easier to build a valuation model for it than other companies (with -ve earnings). In FFIV's case, being profitable is (unfortunately for the stock) turning out to be a -ve. FFIV is overvalued to be considered by people who routinely look for value (it sells at a premium to the S&P). Stocks like FFIV (no longer a growth story) will IMO not do well in uncertain overall market environment. I have no position in FFIV (long or short). Regards, Rajiv

To: HandsOn who wrote (653)	5/10/2000 11:12:00 PM
From: Paul A	Respond to of 790

Holy cow! How are ya Hands?!?! Long time no talk to.. Sorry about that.. Having a day job is essentially a second job, (market first!).. but the money sure is nice coming in both ways.. Im still going to hit you up on a vacation soon so expect a call.. IMCL and INCY..thats all ive done for the last 5 days.. 5 points upside, stop lose set at 1 point down.. Might want to check them out. I sold STMP short over and over and over and over.. Surprising but most of my profit is coming from long trades,.. the bounces are REAL predictable.. key I think is all cash, every night.. or small small positions.. Wish I had some shorts tonight :).. AMAT is ugly.. bottom? anyone?!?! 'Zeeve' has called this to perfection.. Last I mooched off his posts I think he was saying 2900 on nasdaq.. Guess its not that far off as it was when he said it at 3800 !!! hope everyones staying alive..