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To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (103194)5/8/2000 8:12:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman  Respond to of 186894
 
From the Rambus thread:

http://news.excite.com/news/zd/000508/16/intel-plans-aggressive


Intel plans aggressive 'Willamette' intro

Updated 4:07 PM ET May 8, 2000

by John G. Spooner, ZDNet News

The eventual replacement to the Pentium is scheduled to come to market in the second half of the year.

Intel Corp. has one word for its plans to ramp its next-generation desktop processor: aggressive.

Sources said the company has laid out plan to quickly ramp up volumes of the chip, code-named Willamette, by rolling out three clock speed versions in order to establish it in the mainstream of the desktop PC market in the first quarter of next year.

Intel officials have confirmed that the chip will debut at 1.4GHz in the second half of this year. However, Intel will also deliver chips at clock rates below that speed. Intel, sources said, plans to offer a 1.3GHz version, along with the 1.4GHz clock speed, starting in the fourth quarter.

Willamette is the first ground-up processor core design since it introduced the current "P6" processor core in its Pentium Pro processor in 1995. As such, the Willamette chip will be an important product for Intel as it continues the megahertz race with rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc.

Willamette's architecture design is tuned to achieve high megahertz ratings, Intel officials have said. As part of this plan, Intel will roll out Willamette chips in 100MHz increments. It will follow the 1.4GHz clock speed chip with a 1.5GHz clock speed Willamette device in the first quarter of 2001, sources said.

This means that, in total, the company will have three clock speed variants of the chip available by the first quarter of 2001. By this time, Intel expects that the lower clock speed Willamette chips will begin to penetrate the mainstream PC market.

In 2001, the company plans to move Willamette to a 0.13-micron manufacturing process, which will shrink the size of the chip by decreasing the distance between the transistors inside it. The current manufacturing process is 0.18-micron. This manufacturing move, known as a process shrink, will allow Intel to garner additional clock speed gains and will also lower the power consumption of the chip so that Intel may use it as a mobile processor. Intel has said that it will introduce copper interconnects, tiny wires that connect transistors inside a chip, with its move to 0.13.

Pentium III not dead, yet

Despite the company's plans to drive Willamette into the mainstream, Intel will not phase out the Pentium III chip for some time.

Company For Intel, it is important to continue shipping the Pentium III for at least two reasons: cost and customer adoption. Willamette chips and the PCs they come in will be relatively expensive at first. Based on Intel's regular price moves, the Pentium III, on the other hand, will be relatively inexpensive. It is safe to predict that even the company's 1GHz Pentium III will cost less than $500 by the second half of next year. Consumers looking to pick up 1GHz systems at relatively low prices will benefit from this development.

Many large corporate customers of PCs, based on Intel chips, will take time to evaluate Willamette before adopting the chip and its new chip set and system bus architectures.

First things first

While it has aggressive plans for Willamette, Intel is still working to deliver its high-end Pentium III chips in volume. The company has stated that its 1GHz Pentium III will not be widely available until the third quarter of this year. The chip isn't expected to move into mainstream use until the fourth quarter or early next year.

The company jumped from 800MHz at the end of 1999 to 1GHz early in March. It skipped a few speed grades, however, shipping its 850MHz and 866MHz Pentium IIIs in late March.

Intel has yet to announce its 933MHz Pentium III. However, that chip will ship later this month, sources said.

Intel officials have said the company has the ability to turn the crank one or two more times to faster Pentium III chips.

"I think you'll see us stretch at least one notch above 1GHz, maybe two," Intel Executive Vice President Paul Otellini told analysts in New York, last month.

Those two speed grades would likely be 1066MHz and 1133MHz, based on the Pentium III's bus multiplier.



To: Harry Landsiedel who wrote (103194)5/9/2000 7:34:00 AM
From: Road Walker  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 186894
 
Harry, re: "Could today's action be symptomatic of an ongoing reduction in stock prices with high PE's to reflect rising interest rates? I wonder where the bottom will be?"

I think the PE's are being revised downward across the whole spectrum of valuations. As a point of reference, from last Friday:

* Yield on the 10 yesr treasury note has risen from less than 5% to 6 1/2% over the last 12 months
* The S&P 500 has risen 6.52% over the last 12 months
* The PE ration on the S&P 500 has declined from 35.67 to 29.74 over the last 12 months

The earnings growth has been great; the market isn't assigning as much value to the earnings, because you can earn higher return with less risk in bonds.

As to where the bottom is, if you figure it out, let me know.

John