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Gold/Mining/Energy : Francisco Gold - FGX.V -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: russwinter who wrote (798)	5/8/2000 11:33:00 PM
From: Elizabeth Andrews	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1907

I'm not going to make any price predictions except that I know that I paid $5.50 for the stock and I believe I'll get more than that within an acceptable time frame. This is subject to gold not completely crapping out. I'm also bearish on gold as the above ground supply is just too large and is held in hands that are financially driven by interest and lease payments not inflation. So you have to sell the gold rallies and buy the weakness until the reality and the psychology changes. This company has two superb properties, but management is not in a once in a lifetime situation. Let's not forget that the main man here sold Robert Friedland control of Venezualean Goldfileds and other properties when they were hot and Robert thought he could leverage a hot play into hotter money. It looks like the sellers were correct. This is the case here. You should know based on the little profile you gave us that you only sell when you've got the goods and got somebody who wants you. FGX has the goods and I believe there's people who want the assets but management wants a higher price. It will happen but higher than $5.50 is my bet. The significance of the president exercising options (and probably keeping the stock) has been lost on most. First there's a tax implication to him and second he's not stupid and may have a feel for when to be a seller. Friedland got very lucky on Diamond Fields I think. Everything else he has done is in the toilet, especially the deals he bought from others like Mt. Grant that became the Summitville nightmare called Galactic. What about his underwriters of Indo China Goldfields at $18 per share? Are they still talking?

To: russwinter who wrote (798)	5/8/2000 11:42:00 PM
From: Nexus	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 1907

Russ, You are proving my point exactly that that market gives fair market value according to present and expected conditions. All is reflected in the price of the stock. You say that you were able to sell your buildings at your price once you improved your assets and improved the neibourghood. For FGX, they need to improve their assets (perhaps through Marlin) with the help of market conditions. At that point, of course they can get better offers. But in under these circumstances, the market gives it the present market value. But unlike the improvement of your assets that were under your control, FGX's control over it's assets and market conditions may not be as clear. There are still people that bought gold at over $800/oz that are still waiting for those better times...that may never come. <<Therefore, I don't really expect a buyout until market conditions improve substantially or Marlin pans out big. At that point, $20 may be doable.>> Of course it's possible...everything is possible. But you can't say that FGX is undervalued because one day, market conditions will improve substantially or Marlin will pan out big, you just don't know and can't claim to know. <<Sounds like you are what is called a "random walk" (or efficient market) theory investor. If so, stay away from these stocks, they aren't for you.>> Thanks for the advice but these stocks are exactly what I am looking for. I look for situations that are ripe for a strong move and yes I do a lot of homework. This stock is starting to interest me because it has the potential of being an exploration play backed by solid assets. The missing link is improved conditions in the gold market that in the least help those assets retain their value. You then get an exploration play for free. I am seeing signs that could lead to at least a partial recovery in the gold market. If I believe that strongly enough, count me in for sure. I do believe in an almost efficient market. My game is to predict future trends as best I can by spending as much time as possible doing my research. At least I am not arrogant enough to state that I am bigger and smarter than the market. I just try to understand it enough to make smart investment decisions. Nexus.