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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bilow who wrote (41795)	5/9/2000 2:25:00 AM
From: The Prophet	Respond to of 93625

You know, Carl used to be an honest sophist. But now he's resorted to using only those excerpts that support his sophism. Here's the end of the article from which he quoted: 19. When Intel gets serious about Willamette rollout in early 2001, though, we may have a different story. If there's a reasonable supply at a somewhat reasonable price for the Willamette models, people will buy it. That probably will get the snowball rolling as everyone joins in and ramps up capacity as Willamette production ramps up over the course of 2001. RAMBUS use could then spread across the whole PC spectrum. 20. If there isn't that reasonable supply at a somewhat reasonable price next year, though, we'll have deja vu all over again. 21. So if you want a heads-up on what's going to happen, try to find how many of these new-generation RDRAM sticks (not the individual memory chips, RDRAM advocates love to toss that number out and not tell you to divide by 8 to come up with the number of sticks) are being made towards the end of year, and how much capacity is out there. If you see around 3 million sticks being made a month come next February or March, and they don't cost too much more than DDR, RDRAM has a very good chance. If that number is a million or less, RDRAM is in real trouble. overclockers.com

To: Bilow who wrote (41795)	5/9/2000 2:29:00 AM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

Hi all; Some old Bilow posts that are probably worth reviewing. RMBS' price is hard to predict due to the nature of its high multiple and the nature of the people who own it. Here I make a prediction on AMD vs INTC, that was an easier stock prediction to make. Note that this was before the really big fiasco near the end of September: September 3, 1999 If they haven't fired anyone over there for this fiasco I would be quite surprised. AMD is going to kick their butts over the next year, by having high performance processors for sale that are not tied to the RMBS albatross. ... The CPU play of the next 12 months is short INTC, long AMD in my guess, and this is due to the rambus problem. As to what this means for RMBS, I do not know. I do know that RMBS major production continues to be delayed, and their major customer is replacing/delaying their product, while the stock price is still quite high. #reply-11155602 The reason I didn't know what all that would mean for RMBS is that there was no way of knowing in advance whether INTC would be able to force the technology on everybody. If they could, (at the expense of giving up a lot of market share to AMD), it would be great for RMBS. But in either case, Intel succeeding or not, it was going to be great for AMD. This was 7 months ago, my 12-month suggested trade is looking pretty good so far: siliconinvestor.com -- Carl