To: Neil H who wrote (6581 ) 5/9/2000 6:34:00 PM From: Jacob Snyder Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 11568
thanks for the article, I've been trying, for a couple of years, to figure out who is going to make big money from the internet. I have a list of companies and groups who surely won't. I have a much smaller list of companies who probably will. After two years, my ideas still haven't gelled, but I think I know enough to use them to pick stocks. The winners: 1. non-commodity hardware companies, and their food chain: INTC, TXN, AMAT 2. big software companies that can offer support for an end-to-end solution: MSFT, ORCL, SAP 3. Service companies that can supply all the customer's needs for information pipelines: WCOM 4. CSCO, of course. The losers: 1. anyone who can't upgrade, service, and maintain what they sell. Renting is replacing selling, for lots of hitech stuff. No one wants to be bothered having their own IT department any more. No one wants to debug anything, update anything, or add any components. Do it for them, or someone else will. 2. anyone who can't offer an end-to-end solution. Little companies are going to get big quickly, get purchased, or die. Most will die. 3. anyone who can't quickly detect changes in the marketplace, and turn the company upside down to meet the new conditions. AT&T, and all her progeny, even Lucent. 4. anyone selling a commodity. This is a long list: all the B2C companies, many of the B2B companies, voice (any distance), POIS (plain old internet service), most hardware components for building the internet infrastructure. Things that were a commodity before the internet, still are. Things that weren't a commodity, often get turned into one by the internet, which is great for buyers, but bad for sellers.