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To: Hands Off who wrote (10115)	5/10/2000 12:23:00 AM
From: Boplicity	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 24042

re: Isn't it possible that the bear may just whimper itself away? A long, grinding, demoralizing sideways trend without a 600 point spike down to mark the end? The above is my worse fear I give a 70% change of happening. Since the FED doesn't even know what money is, has little to no idea what the Internet is doing to increase efficiency because the Internet is still being developed at faster rate of change then anything the Fed has ever seen and is using last century methods to control a new emerging economy that might need different methods to control it. What I mean by the above is the economy is more fluid and global then ever has been and will continue to find ways around the FED rate increases, causing them to be less effective which in turn will cause the FED to overshoot like it has done so many times before. Greg

To: Hands Off who wrote (10115)	5/10/2000 9:45:00 AM
From: Hank Stamper	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 24042

"Do you have an opinion on what it would take to frighten people? " There may be some sort of external (to the market or economy) that trips a fast sharp decline. Or, maybe not. "Isn't it possible that the bear may just whimper itself away? A long, grinding, demoralizing sideways trend without a 600 point spike down to mark the end? " Gregory Bateson, the anthropologist, used to describe a type of catastrophic change this way: imagine a big fat frog in a pan of cool water. He/she (I don't know how to tell the gender of frogs) just sits there in sassy comfort. The pan, however, is actually on a stove and someone turns the burner on. The water heats in gradations. Does the frog jump? Nope, because the frog is a sort of 'difference machine.' I.e., it is designed to detect the difference between one level of (in this case) heat verses another. Unfortunatly for the frog, the gradations of difference is now faces are not enough--the frog cannot detect gradual gradations. Result? It gets boiled. If, however, you had tried to drop the frog into the pan of boiling hot water, it would have been able to detect the difference and would have jumped to save its life. Most bear markets are like the pan of water on the stove. True, as djia wrote, bear markets last (historically) a lot shorter than bulls. But, the rub: they go too slowly for investors' difference detectors to say, "Jump!" in time. Ciao, David Todtman