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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Sosmartinov who wrote (50311)	5/11/2000 10:44:00 AM
From: the Chief	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I think the manipulation has gone too far and the "investors" immersed in this market have been spooked by the near drowning experience....just look at the vol. If that's true then the charts we all have been using are temporarily useless and, seems to me, we are going to have to stick to stks that have pretty constant movement patterns, Good analogy.....near drowning experience. But that is was and will be the intention. For this opera to play out correctly they have to reduce mommentum to nothing more than quick pops followed by nail biting "edge" of cliff retreats. Each small ralley flushes out the sellers and the funds/brokerages accumulate a few more buys. This will continue up to and including Greenspans speach, after that the lid will come off the box and the trading range will be moved to the 3600 range. This will allow a secondary level of consolidation and further inroads for the funds. The staged buying will average out at about 3600 Nas points for the funds and liquidity will not be an issue in the next ensuing months. We have always referred to; the summer doldrums and the ensuing fall ralley with the pause for the dreaded October, as the norm. This year it will reverse. We will have a great summer investment climate and the stall in October could be a shocker! Disclaimer The author occassionally participate in "single malt taste tests" these tests can occur at anytime, and for long periods. The author is not complelled, to inform this thread, whether he is participating in one of these "tests" at the time of his "prophecies". Much like the AFLAK duck ......nobody understands me<ggggg> Signed the man with no brain

To: Sosmartinov who wrote (50311)	5/11/2000 10:53:00 AM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

On market manipulation conspiracy: Am very wary of such theories, and all the more so on any attempt to trade on them. IMO, they sometimes may seem attractive because they seem to promise one big explanation for the results of highly complex interactions involving many thousands (if not millions or billions) of competing groups and individuals. Markets distill the results of these interactions into prices, and all major price movements, just like important psychological or historical events, are overdetermined, and therefore susceptible to multiple parallel explanations. Chart patterns have been fitting together like magic jigsaw puzzles for hundreds if not thousands of years, in every kind of market. Of course, there's nothing magic or mysterious at all about price levels and the fairly simple reasons that people gravitate toward and re-visit them. I do not believe that any one agency, even a powerful wealthy conspiracy, can achieve more than a marginal, transitory affect on market movement, and, even then, I believe that chaos and unintended consequences can be counted on to foil any attempts to pre-determine the larger course of events.