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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (8361)	5/12/2000 10:50:00 AM
From: Gersh Avery	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Hi DJ .. That effect that I mentioned so long ago .. everybody is addicted to the market .. Market goes up .. "let's blow some cash. After all, we're rich!" Market goes down .. "Oh my God!! Pay off some credit cards quick! Those Wall Street bas@@@@@ ripped us off! No! We can't buy that bauble today!" US consumer spending is linked to the well being of the market. The read on the "news" for now, is that lower consumer spending will make it less likely that the fed will raise by .5 .. good news for the market. I think that we just might run up into 6/2. If we do, I think that would be the greatest day to get short. I might go after the QQQ again, with puts this time. BTW .. I think that the fed only does .25. The market already has part of the expected .5 built into it.

To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (8361)	5/13/2000 10:42:00 AM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 11051

>" that the US spend less ..." ...as Gersh says, Americans tend think of their IRA's and 401-K's and other stocks, StockFunds as "savings" - kapital gains in these accounts - hey, that's not "more savings" but, disposable income. Rather than simply compounding or, classically re-allocating kapital gains, folks have been more inclined: (1) to increase margin / credit leverage; and, (2) go out and buy more-better houses, cars, clothes, electronic toys, etc. IOW, consuming things is a socially acceptable diversification of wealth over here in Kapital-Land. Right now there is very little "job uncertainty" over here; indeed many folks may feel that if they were to quit their present job they may get an even better salary elsewhere. They're not so concerned about income... as Gersh says, it is this perception of wealth = well being and "surplus savings" = disposable income. ...nothing mysterious about consumerism to a man as worldly as you, DJ (^_^) But imho there is another aspect, a "chicken before egg?" kinda paradox. Picture American workers not only consuming houses and cars and clothes and electronic toys, but also disposing "surplus" income on risky TechStocks... from the data I've seen, the rate of change of American RETAIL activity is a leading indicator of the NASDAQ COMPX. To the American worker, with a pocketful of change - going down to the mall to buy the latest SONY toy is about the same as going online to buy the latest TechStock :-/ ==> these people aren't investors, they're consumers. -Steve