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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HairBall who wrote (50510)	5/12/2000 10:46:00 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG, i will answer that in detail later tonight... regards, hb

To: HairBall who wrote (50510)	5/12/2000 11:01:00 AM
From: Crimson Ghost	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

LG: A few random thoughts The economy will slow, the dollar will take a big hit, and stocks will drop considerably further before this bear is finished. One more stiff drop may bring this phase of the bear to a close, but the next phase -- to begin sometime between summer and the day after the elections -- probably will drop prices close to their 1998 lows. In a slower economy budget surpluses will vanish as politicians move to cut taxes. Those treasury buybacks that many on Wall Street see continuing for many years, likely will end in 2001 or 2002 at the latest. Given the extreme leverage in the US today, debt defaults and bankruptcies will skyrocket in a recessionary environment. In such a scenario financial stocks look especially risky here. Probably more risky than tech now. The combination of a slowing economy and a weaker dollar could trigger an episode of 1970s style stagflation. Not as extreme as the 1970s, but a real problem nonetheless. That is the best possible environment for a major bull market in gold.

To: HairBall who wrote (50510)	5/12/2000 11:03:00 AM
From: el paradisio	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

LG,that rally is loosing some force.Possible end soon. As per my data,buying signal is much weaker now. Regards, and good look with your new equipment el

To: HairBall who wrote (50510)	5/12/2000 11:09:00 AM
From: Les H	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I wonder whether the e-tailers will ramp up another fall promotion like last year. Heavy advertising, coupons, and rebates to bring out the buyers and to tout 'large' revenue gains. Sort of a final shot at selling insider stock and for the brokerages to tout these stocks starting in September before many of them go off into oblivion. The election fall and winter is usually strong.

To: HairBall who wrote (50510)	5/12/2000 11:20:00 AM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 99985

I think Deflation is the long term trend, but I think we need to cool the JETS. As long as baby boomers keep investing bull will run with intimidiary bears. I am scared what will happen in the 2005-2010 period when Boomers retire and start buying bonds and suck SS system. That is when we will have are next 70's style 10 year bear market IMHO. I think this bear lasts till the fall.

To: HairBall who wrote (50510)	5/13/2000 9:53:00 PM
From: lurqer	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

I am interested in yours and others on this thread views on how they think the next few years are going to play out. FWIW I believe this year is closer to '94 than '74. I suspect this year may be "worse" for the market than '94, because the excesses to be corrected are worse. Are we going to see the continuation of much of the same albeit at a more subdued rate. Hmmm. Not sure what you mean by "the same". As alluded to above, my best guess is after an interruption the secular bull continues. are we going to see a bull market in equities, the possible fall of the dollar and what will we see as far as the economy...deflation, inflation or stagflation? No surprises from me. The Fed will continue to raise until the economy slows. Best guess is they'll overshoot a little and we'll have a "mild" recession. Of course the market will recover before the economy, and again as a guess the market will begin its next sustained upswing around year end or first quarter next year. All of the above is written on water and I'm unabashedly mercurial with my prognostications. My last "real job" was as a simulator (complex computer models). For the market at any one time, I keep about five models simultaneously - likely worst bear, likely best bull, best guess, etc. What I gave you above was from the current best guess. As a rule I prefer not to discuss my scenarios because they are subject to constant revision and I don't want to mislead. You have kindly shared your superb charts so I'll attempt to reciprocate, but I must reiterate all the above is only a current snapshot. Just hanging around ... lurqer