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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jdaasoc who wrote (42132)	5/12/2000 3:59:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

John, Even RMBS management states that RDRAM production in 2000 will be about 100 M pieces. You've probably seen my follow-up message to Gene by now lowering the estimate. But if RDRAM production in 2000 is 100M pieces, and Sony takes roughly 20M of them (11M units * 2 chips, right?), then it doesn't seem unreasonable to me that Dell would take much (half?) of the rest. They are by far the most aggressive vendor in building and pushing RDRAM-based systems. We know they're not going out in the aftermarket. Networking usage isn't sucking up much. The other systems vendors aren't being nearly as aggressive. So if Dell took 50% of the remaining 80M, or 40M for them, that would be close to the reduced number if roughly 25% of Dell's business is in laptops versus desktops. Since Toshiba and IBM own the laptop world, this passes the "sanity check" for me. But it's all guesses (except for Gene's post of the Dell numbers). Dave