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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Habib who wrote (42133)	5/12/2000 4:12:00 PM
From: Dave B	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

Richard, Another good analysis. Here's where I disagree, though: Servers are their fastest growing segment - they have about 16% marketshare. Haven't reduced this to units but I think you should assume a couple million. I don't think it's nearly this high. I'll see if I can find some market numbers. Reducing the number of servers would increase Dell's desktop PC unit sales. Thus a ballpark is 9.7M PCs shipped by Dell. Of this how many in Optiplex and B lines. I would guess the B line is relatively limited. Even if you assume a 1/3 of all Dell PCs are RMBS you are left with 3-4M units. You make quite a jump in assuming 1/3 are RMBS, especially since they seem to be moving to an all-RMBS product line (again, no new SDRAM product lines that I'm aware of). The Optiplex line is their managed corporate line and they have strong penetration in corporate America (in fact, I use one at my current clients site -- a GX1p which has been there since before RDRAM was introduced). So I suspect it's a fairly high portion of their sales. I have access to some older unit-sales-by-product-line data at another site and I'll try to get a read on the relative volumes of their managed PCs versus desktop PCs product lines. As for the B series, I don't have visibility into its sales though I suspect you're correct just given the price points. The key assumption built into my estimates, however, was that they are aggressively moving RDRAM into their lower cost units. We'll know in about 6 months whether that's happening or not. Total boxes this year will be about 135M thus optimistic about 3.7% of boxes will be RMBS this year. We had this confusion late last year as well. Keep in mind that RDRAM is currently (and will for the majority of this year) be going into high end boxes which typically have more memory. So the % of systems using RDRAM will be less than the RDRAM share of the DRAM market. Sorry I brought this up! <G> Dave