To: limtex who wrote (71864 ) 5/14/2000 8:41:00 PM From: Randall Knight Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 152472
I think that hoping for AWE or NOK to come on board is a total waste of time and thought process. The plain facts are that they haven't and probably won't come on board. While I agree that QCOM will progress rapidly without either AWE or Nokia, and that neither are likely to come on board any time soon, the importance of that happening deserves some discussion. Nokia and other companies who supply the GSM carriers stand to make billions by delaying the roll out of CDMA in any form. Nokia will sell both infrastructure and handsets for each of the GSM upgrade paths to 3G. That is of course unless carrier decide to by-pass the whole charade and move directly to MC-CDMA and unless Vodafone can sway a continent, that isn't going to happen (or is it?) Anyway, if Nokia were to suddenly start buying QCOM chips because 1x has all of these advanced capabilities not offered in current CDMA systems and especially not in NOK phones, it would represent a major capitulation in the eyes of the GSM carriers. (Man, that was a long sentence) It would substantiate what QCOM has been saying all along about the future of wireless. I believe that Nokia would rather write off the entire current CDMA market than shoot holes in their efforts to prolong the upgrade th 3G in their GSM markets. Let's not forget that Nokia's market in wireless is virtually all GSM/TDMA/AMPs. They risk very little by losing in CDMA and risk a lot by having GSM move to CDMA. That is why I don't think Nokia will buy Q chips and why if they did, it would signal the collapse of Fortress Europe. On the other hand, the day will come when CDMA can't be ignored, even by Nokia. When that day comes, I'll be buying all of the call options in Q that I can afford. China moving quickly and decisively to CDMA just might do the trick.