Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Z268 who wrote (35512)	5/14/2000 10:36:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Respond to of 77400

Steven, There is much MUCH more to this equation. There is DSL both to the home and business. This market is booming and was once dominated by ALA. CSCO is making excellent progress here. THis market is growing at over 50% There is the Cable market. This market is also booming as T begins to add voice to their cable acquisitions. The market was once hotly contested between MOT, COMS, and CSCO but CSCO appears to be emmerging at the winner in the head-end space. There is wireless... arguably growing faster than the previous two. As users migrate away from desktop access to the net towards portabile handhelds, cellphones, and other single pupose devices the infrastructure required to support these will be astronomical. Furthermore 3G will compound the demnad for product here. CSCO has teamed with MOT and NOK to deliver these multiservice wireless solution. Optical - yes a huge market but it should be diveded into long haul, metro, access, and in-home/business. While CSCO has fallen behind in long-haul the other markets (which fall more in line with CSCO's business) are still up for grabs. There is a long way to go in the optical space. Of course this shouldn't be contrued to mean that business for switches or routers or other CSCO products should be ignored. In most cases (if not all) as the above buildout's occur switches and routers will be a neccessary ingredient. So, while I do agree with you that it will be all about execution I do think that many folks are underestimating the market. Remember, when you and I think about the market we think about the US... but we have an entire world out there where the two largest countries in population are just begining. And fwiw CSCO is well represented in both of of them. Good Investing. Oh... regarding premium... see my post about 5-10 posts back... at $60 the premium in this stock is easily supported given market growth rates and CSCO's historical ability to capture market share. OG

To: Z268 who wrote (35512)	5/14/2000 10:36:00 AM
From: lawdog	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Levitating Earnings: an Act, or a Fact? "Cisco Systems, Lucent Technologies, I.B.M. and Hewlett-Packard are just some of the companies now doing this. Many of those buying the gear are small start-ups that lack the cash to buy the equipment outright. The problem, of course, is that such buyers may never have the cash. Cisco, which said in its latest quarterly report that its financings were rising, acknowledged the danger. "Although we have programs in place to monitor and mitigate the associated risk," the report said, "there can be no assurance that such programs will alleviate all of our credit risk." The difficulty for investors in all this, Mr. Olstein said, is that some companies -- Cisco included -- do not specify what portion of their sales are financed. And just how companies account for these sales is often not clear, either. " CSCO is a great company and I doubt they would purposefully cook the books, but the extent of this problem just may not be completely clear yet. With A/R showing signs of stagnation and "other assets" increasing at such a rapid rate it the danger signs should be clear. The corelation with the financing running out for the .bombs and other questionable customers raises additional questions. Let's see some of that world class analysis eom, og, Zoltan, tp, et al. nytimes.com

To: Z268 who wrote (35512)	5/14/2000 11:02:00 AM
From: Howard Feinstein	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77400

Yes SY, I'm mulling the valuation dilemma myself! I, as most investors, in this chat room do not question the quality, leadership, or position in the Tech arena for Cisco. They are hands down #1 in all three fields, in my opinion. My question, or dilemma, lies in the area of stock valuation, and where the current market is taking Cisco, as well as other high P/E stocks? Yes, Cisco has maintained a high P/E for years, and yes they have continued to show tremendous growth running with the P/E, but it appears that this current Bear Market, and it is a Bear Market, seems to be in the process of taking the High P/E stocks down, Cisco among them, and taking them down to a value equal to it's P/E's. What does this all mean to my Cisco investment? Well, if it is indeed going to correct to it's "proper" value, we could be looking at a $35 figure. If true, that is a frightening figure, despite my $20 cost basis! If Cisco does hit $35 range we're talking NASDAQ 2500 range! As a Long term Bull I've painted a Bear picture, as one has to consider all possibilities in this volatile market. I'd like to hear some comments on my possible doom and gloom scenario, and some reasons why "it just ain't gonna' happpen!" Thanks Howie