Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (35516)	5/14/2000 11:12:00 AM
From: The Phoenix	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77400

Howie, While I too have been considering the same issue I have noticed that most pundits (talking heads) are suggesting that this market has dialed in 50 basis points here and again in August. Furthermore most believe that is all we'll see and that historically May to Nov in election years has been bullish moves for the market. Many are expecting a big summer rally. So if in fact the economy is slowing and further interest rate increases are not likely the NAZ should stabilize here and move up again - albeit far more slowly than we saw during the past few years. JMO... well and that of analysts at Goldman, Morgan Stanley, and...uh... forgort the other one.. OG

To: Howard Feinstein who wrote (35516)	5/14/2000 5:29:00 PM
From: Z268	Respond to of 77400

RE: Cisco Valuation Here is what I think we can collectively help each other figure out what may be a sustainable stock price, based on fundamental analysis. Perhaps some of you out there can size the edge router market, the core switch/router market, the Optical long haul market, the Optical Metro market, the broadband access market (xDSL and cable), the wireless market (cellular and fixed). These are all the spaces Cisco play in (as Gary points out), although their footprint in Optical and Wireless today lags far behind the major players such as NT and LU. If we can match the market size to revenues Cisco currently gets from these segments, we can then model Cisco's revenues going forward, and therefore predict the stock price range going forward. We seem to agree that Cisco's revenues need to grow by at least 50% year-on-year to sustain current valuations. This can not be achieved from the router and core switch market segments, so the question becomes: how fast can Cisco grow the broadband access segment, the wireless segment, and the Optical segment? My current impression is that revenue from broadband access is significant, revenue from Optical is 1B (I think I read this in one of the posts), and revenue from Wireless is negligible to date. Any takers to do the market sizing and the number crunching? Steve.