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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eric K. who wrote (42405)	5/17/2000 3:24:00 AM
From: The Prophet	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 93625

If you check the AMD thread far back enough you will see that I have been suggesting it since it was at 20 dollars two years ago. That being said, since trading at 70 earlier this year, and even now, RMBS is the better value. RMBS' proper valuation is somewhere between $500 and $1400 depending on whether it ends up earning royalties on SDRAM and DDR, and depending on its penetration into the communications chip market. It is worth $500 alone based on RDRAM and logic and controller devices. Here's the math - approx $100 billion total market 3 years out on RDRAM and related logic and controllers x 60% market share x 1.5% avg royalty x 60% net margins (taxes and expenses) x 25 p/e. As for AMD, the risk of INTC's double whammy (integrated low end Timna processor and corporate desktop Willamette) to AMD's business model is very high, especially once INTC ramps up to .13 at all plants and cuts low end prices by 60%. Whenever this happens, invariably my good friend Jerry ends up pre-announcing a surprise loss based on "ruthless price cuts." You are deluding yourself, Eric, if you really believe that AMD is the better value. Fortunately, the proof is in the pudding and I have a very, very long memory. Prophet

To: Eric K. who wrote (42405)	5/17/2000 3:45:00 AM
From: Tenchusatsu	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Eric, <If Willamette only ramps in the hundreds of thousands as stated by Albert Yu at the IDF, you have to agree AMD should at least double from here.> Intel has much more aggressive plans for Willamette than that. "Hundreds of thousands" is the estimate of this year's volume alone. Wait until 2001, when Willamette really gets going, not to mention Northwood, the shrink of Willamette (lower power, lower cost, higher frequency). Of course, Intel isn't making much noise over that, given their new focus on the Internet. <A patient investor has made about a 400% return from AMD already.> Said patient investor would have made much more on INTC had he or she bought during Intel's Pentium FDIV fiasco back in 1994/95. I think one of Scumbria's favorite Web sites is retroactivetrader.com . Tenchusatsu P.S. - The web site doesn't exist.