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Technology Stocks : Rambus (RMBS) - Eagle or Penguin -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Prophet who wrote (42406)	5/17/2000 4:19:00 AM
From: Joe NYC	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 93625

Prophet, Here's the math - approx $100 billion total market 3 years out on RDRAM and related logic and controllers x 60% market share ... Here is another estimate: eet.com Farhad Tabrizi, vice president of strategic marketing and product planning for Hyundai MicroElectronics (San Jose), questioned whether there is room for both DDR and Direct Rambus in the niche markets of high-end systems they both target. Indeed, Semico Research released a projection this week that shows Rambus eking out just 0.1 percent of the DRAM market in 2004. That's quite a difference. As for AMD, the risk of INTC's double whammy (integrated low end Timna processor and corporate desktop Willamette) to AMD's business model is very high, especially once INTC ramps up to .13 at all plants and cuts low end prices by 60%. Just to put this FUD in context of what's really happening, according to the roadmap of both companies, AMD will get to .13u ahead of Intel. Intel needs to switch to copper and .13u, having to replace most of the equipment in their fabs. AMD on the other hand is already ramping their copper process and the present equipment in their Dresden fab is .13u capable, making the transition a lot smoother, approximately 6 months ahead of Intel (1H 2001 vs. 2H 2001). Joe

To: The Prophet who wrote (42406)	5/17/2000 7:46:00 PM
From: Barry Grossman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 93625

As for AMD, the risk of INTC's double whammy (integrated low end Timna processor and corporate desktop Willamette) to AMD's business model is very high, especially once INTC ramps up to .13 at all plants and cuts low end prices by 60%. Whenever this happens, invariably my good friend Jerry ends up pre-announcing a surprise loss based on "ruthless price cuts." The risk to AMD might be sooner than the ramp to .13. Message 13520475 Intel has said that they will not be supply constrained in 2H00 and we have also heard that we are at 50% .18 midyear and 90% .18 by year-end. Consequently, unit costs will be coming down BIG-time this year and I can foresee that Intel will be maintaining or increasing market share [this year] with aggressive pricing. Will this hurt Intel's margins? I think we have already heard from Intel on that front as they reiterated their guidance of 61% for the year just a few weeks ago. And they were fully cognizant of the AMD product line when they spoke. So contrary to the AMD bulls dreams of 30% market share, when Intel isn't supply constrained, as they said they won't be in 2H00, the AMDroids might be looking at losses all over again. Might be a good time to short AMD if anyone is so inclined.