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To: Apollo who wrote (24921)	5/17/2000 4:39:00 PM
From: Eric L	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan, Re: CDMA metrics......how to best measure? << I wonder how accurate, or inaccurate, it is to use CDMA subscribership as a surrogate for anticipating revenues. I'm thinking here that it is fairly inaccurate, overestimating in some ways, and underestimating in others >> More rambling. Raw subscriber data is indeed pretty crude (although IMO, still an important metric). To complicate the matter further, using summary data available on the web as opposed to expensive reports available from research agencies, we really we are not privy to the comprehensive detail that backs up the summary data, and consequently we have to attempt to interpret some of the basic data we have at our disposal, and risk doing so incorrectly (witness the confusion I expressed in my previous posts). Some of the other metrics we possibly should be looking at are infra sales, handset sales, carrier contracts let, etc. Again, we don't have access to real detailed data. We have convinced ourselves that CDMA is in a tornado. We have also talked about a new tornado ... the wireless data tornado ... with probably an ecommerce and multimedia tornadoes to follow that one. I think this first new tornado has begun or is about to begin (or perhaps its just a continuation of the first), but I'm not sure how to quantify this. I'm referring to the CDMA WAP enabled services that have begun here in the states, IS95-B data services in Korea and Japan, IS-2000 trials commencing, Java enabled iMode in Japan, WAP all over 2G GSM, GPRS contracts being let in large numbers and build outs in progress. Now here I've folded in some competing technologies that don't produce revenue for Qualcomm, and I don't know how to sort that back out. << I'd like to hear from Ruffian, LindyBill, Merlin and others on this one. >> Yes ... we meed "professional" help. <g> - Eric -

To: Apollo who wrote (24921)	5/17/2000 5:03:00 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan, Not having a cell phone (cough, cough), I'm not sure of the magnitude of importance to place in the CDMA growth numbers. As an example of my ignorance, I don't know if one person can use three cell phones on the same account. If they can, certainly that presents the subscription count in a different light than if the sub count is done per phone, per laptop, per whatever device is counted. This ignorance doesn't pose a huge problem for me because, not being an analyst, I make no attempt to make revenue predictions. Clearly, though, understanding the big picture until data-based revenue kicks in requires keeping an eye on CDMA subscriber growth. No matter what the ratio of all the hardware devices is to the number of subscribers, we do know that with more subscribers there will be more hardware devices bought by both the consumers and infrastructure providers. --Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (24921)	5/17/2000 5:47:00 PM
From: gdichaz	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Stan: Qualcomm is a particularly fascinating case for analysis of multiple tornados and other strong winds. To proceed to mix metaphors, since CDMA is the root we tend to put primary measurement focus on proxies (or indicators) of future growth there. But the data branch off from the root (such as HDR which is not quite all CDMA for example) is a potential which can dwarf the voice CDMA underway now. This in itself makes prediction difficult. But add in the 3rd gen of various flavors and we find that matters of flavors and timing of various mixes compounds the difficulty. But the fun, the wild cards so to speak, is at the wireless / internet (intranet) nexus with modems and PC cards and who knows what else. Handhelds themselves (and laptops) are another area where there is huge potential And the "3rd leg", movies, sound, satellites, and on and on add more complications to any prediction "model". Yes, the growth of CDMA itself worldwide is probably the best proxy for Qualcomm's future growth. But the "base" for that growth as of now - voice CDMA - is very narrow compared to the potential opportunities for the company Qualcomm. Again, what an experiment in GGaming is possible with the Q. What a chance to learn as we go. Best. Cha2