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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Wes who wrote (35263)5/18/2000 4:08:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 70976
 
Wes,

I believe you left out the real reason AMAT is depressed- everyone has been shaken by the Naz decline. I doubt very much whether sellers are making their sell decisions thinking the cycle in semis is nearly over....it has just begun and 300mm is not even a factor yet. AMAT is down because the overall market is down, pure and simple.

JMHO

BK



To: Wes who wrote (35263)5/18/2000 4:25:00 PM
From: robert b furman  Respond to of 70976
 
That was an excellent real historical recap.

Thanks

Bob



To: Wes who wrote (35263)5/18/2000 5:02:00 PM
From: Mark Duper  Respond to of 70976
 
Wes, thanks for the insight. Being relatively new to AMAT (< 1yr.), I appreciate your analysis. It makes sense.

Sup.



To: Wes who wrote (35263)5/18/2000 11:18:00 PM
From: dellman  Respond to of 70976
 
The hard facts and data we all need to be watching to see what will happen in 2001 and beyond are lead times in orders. Once they start to shorten and plant utilization starts to drop, that is the time to sell. Most analysts will rationalize these first declines as a healthy cooling of an overheated market, but it will actually be the beginning of overcapacity. So says Brett Hodess, a tech analyst who correctly called the upswing in 1998. He is the one I am watching.